How Do Governments Determine Policy Priorities? Studying Development Strategies Through Spillover Networks

Gonzalo Castañeda, Florian Chávez-Juárez, Omar A. Guerrero
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引用次数: 17

Abstract

Determining policy priorities is a challenging task for any government because there may be, for example, a multiplicity of objectives to be simultaneously attained, a multidimensional policy space to be explored, inefficiencies in the implementation of public policies, interdependencies between policy issues, etc. Altogether, these factor s generate a complex landscape that governments need to navigate in order to reach their goals. To address this problem, we develop a framework to model the evolution of development indicators as a political economy game on a network. Our approach accounts for the --recently documented-- network of spillovers between policy issues, as well as the well-known political economy problem arising from budget assignment. This allows us to infer not only policy priorities, but also the effective use of resources in each policy issue. Using development indicators data from more than 100 countries over 11 years, we show that the country-specific context is a central determinant of the effectiveness of policy priorities. In addition, our model explains well-known aggregate facts about the relationship between corruption and development. Finally, this framework provides a new analytic tool to generate bespoke advice on development strategies.
政府如何确定政策重点?基于溢出网络的发展战略研究
确定政策优先次序对任何政府来说都是一项具有挑战性的任务,因为例如,可能有多种目标需要同时实现,需要探索多方面的政策空间,执行公共政策的效率低下,政策问题之间的相互依赖性等等。综上所述,这些因素形成了一个复杂的局面,各国政府需要驾驭这个局面才能实现自己的目标。为了解决这个问题,我们开发了一个框架,将发展指标的演变建模为网络上的政治经济博弈。我们的方法解释了最近记录的政策问题之间的溢出效应网络,以及由预算分配引起的众所周知的政治经济问题。这使我们不仅可以推断出政策重点,还可以推断出每个政策问题中资源的有效利用。我们利用100多个国家11年来的发展指标数据表明,具体国家的具体情况是政策优先事项有效性的核心决定因素。此外,我们的模型解释了有关腐败与发展之间关系的众所周知的总体事实。最后,该框架提供了一种新的分析工具,以生成针对发展战略的定制建议。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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