The Best Model for Predicting Tourists to Visit Kalibiru Tourism Object

Abstract

Tourism sector is the most effective sector in encouraging an increase in Indonesia's foreign exchange, although there is no forecasting model that can be used to predict the number of tourist visits. This study attempted to fill the void of the model to predict the number of tourist visits to Kalibiru in particular and to Indonesia in general. Based on the value of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and forecasting ability measured by the value of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), from the 4 proposed models, which were ARIMA, GARCH (0.2), GARCH (2.1) and GARCH (2.2), the GARCH model (2.1) was concluded as the best model to predict the number of tourist visits to Kalibiru tourism object.