Two Europes, One Union? Economic Conditions and Support for the European Union Since the 2004 Enlargement

Abstract

Despite research suggesting macroeconomic factors have been re-established as predictors of Euroscepticism, the effects of changing economic conditions both between and within countries over time in determining support for the European Union (EU) is unclear. This paper’s cross-sectional and longitudinal Bayesian analyses demonstrate that Eurosceptic views are positively correlated with increases in GDP growth, unemployment and interest rates since the 2004 enlargement. Furthermore, variations in Euroscepticism between Western and Central and Eastern Europe from 2004–2017 are examined alongside the associated impact of EU bailout packages. Results indicate that Central and Eastern European member states are less Eurosceptic than their Western peers except for bailout countries who are most supportive of the union. However, Euroscepticism has increased across Central and Eastern Europe from 2004 onwards. Nonetheless, the bloc remains far more content with their participation in the European polity when contrasted with Western countries who have surprisingly grown less Eurosceptic.