The Coup Capital of the Democratic World? Voters and Prime Ministerial Change in Australia

IF 0.6 4区 社会学 Q1 HISTORY
Sarah Cameron, Ian McAllister
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Abstract

Between 2010 and 2018, Australia saw four sitting prime ministers deposed by their own parties, giving the country the title “the coup capital of the democratic world”. In this paper, we use Australian Election Study surveys and commercial opinion poll data to analyse what voters thought of these changes and whether they lifted the electoral fortunes of their respective parties. The results suggest that voters' views of the changes depended on the popularity of the leader in question, but that a desire to see better economic performance reinforced support for a change in prime minister. There is little evidence that opinion polls played a role in any of the changes, at least for voters. There is also no evidence that the changes improved the subsequent vote for each of the parties that changed a prime minister; indeed, in three of the four cases the party vote declined significantly following the change.

Abstract Image

民主世界的政变之都?澳大利亚的选民与总理更迭
2010 年至 2018 年间,澳大利亚有四位现任总理被自己的政党罢免,澳大利亚因此被称为 "民主世界的政变之都"。在本文中,我们利用澳大利亚选举研究调查和商业民意调查数据,分析了选民对这些变化的看法,以及这些变化是否提升了各自政党的选情。结果表明,选民对变革的看法取决于相关领导人的受欢迎程度,但希望看到更好经济表现的愿望加强了对更换总理的支持。几乎没有证据表明民意调查在任何变革中发挥了作用,至少对选民而言是如此。此外,也没有证据表明,更换总理后,各政党的得票率都有所提高;事实上,在四个更换总理的政党中,有三个政党的得票率在更换总理后大幅下降。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
0.60
自引率
12.50%
发文量
59
期刊介绍: The Australian Journal of Politics and History presents papers addressing significant problems of general interest to those working in the fields of history, political studies and international affairs. Articles explore the politics and history of Australia and modern Europe, intellectual history, political history, and the history of political thought. The journal also publishes articles in the fields of international politics, Australian foreign policy, and Australia relations with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.
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