Mozambique—Bust before Boom

A. Roe
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Abstract

This chapter is a sequel to an earlier study that looked in broad terms at many of the issues that Mozambique faces in managing its new extractive resources. The chapter first describes the investment surge prompted by new gas discoveries, then summarizes some recent literature that examines the effects of such resource surges in other countries. It next examines aspects of the disappointing economic outcomes seen through 2018, and analyses some of the implications of these outcomes for future policy. The chapter concludes by exploring the epidemiology of a large public investment surge. In following this sequence of argument, the chapter also throws light on a number of critical general policy questions—such as the route to economic diversification and the need for both institutional change and improved policy co-ordination—that arise in the context of a major new resource discovery.
莫桑比克——繁荣之前的萧条
本章是较早的一项研究的续篇,该研究从广义上考察了莫桑比克在管理其新的采掘资源方面面临的许多问题。本章首先描述了新天然气发现引发的投资激增,然后总结了一些最近的文献,这些文献研究了其他国家这种资源激增的影响。接下来,该报告考察了2018年令人失望的经济结果的各个方面,并分析了这些结果对未来政策的一些影响。本章最后探讨了大规模公共投资激增的流行病学。在遵循这一论证顺序的过程中,本章还揭示了在重大新资源发现的背景下出现的一些关键的一般政策问题,例如经济多样化的途径以及制度变革和改进政策协调的必要性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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