Prediction of cascade failure using probabilistic approach with AC load flow

D. Dagur, M. Parimi, S. Wagh
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引用次数: 8

Abstract

Cascading failures have been the cause of major blackouts in power systems which lead to economical loss and system instability. Following an initial triggering event, it is challenging to predict whether a system would remain stable or tend towards cascade. In order to predict cascading phenomena of power system which is a complex interconnected network, existing deterministic approach may fail to take into account network uncertainties which is taken care by probabilistic approach. Given an initial triggering event, this paper proposes a probabilistic approach to cascading failures in power system which predicts the next line to trip by considering the thermal limit of each line as a constraint. For every line outage, the deviations in line flows with respect to the mean are calculated and the line with the least deviation is the next probable line to trip. The results of this approach are verified using power world simulator.
基于交流潮流的叶栅故障概率预测
级联故障是电力系统重大停电事故的主要原因,造成经济损失和系统不稳定。在初始触发事件之后,预测系统是否会保持稳定或趋向级联是具有挑战性的。电力系统是一个复杂的互联网络,为了预测级联现象,现有的确定性方法可能无法考虑到概率方法所考虑的网络不确定性。在给定初始触发事件的情况下,本文提出了一种以每条线路的热极限作为约束来预测下一条线路跳闸的电力系统级联故障概率方法。对于每次线路中断,计算线路流量相对于平均值的偏差,偏差最小的线路是下一条可能跳闸的线路。利用功率世界模拟器对该方法的结果进行了验证。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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