Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD estimates of the natural rate

IF 1.3 4区经济学 Q3 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI:10.1111/infi.12424

Laurence Ball, Joern Onken

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates for 29 countries from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. We find strong evidence of hysteresis: an innovation in u causes u* to change in the same direction, and therefore has permanent effects. For our baseline specification, a one-percentage-point deviation of u from u* for 1 year has a long-run effect of 0.16 points on both variables. When we allow asymmetry, we find, perhaps surprisingly, that decreases in u have larger long-run effects than increases in u.

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失业的滞后性:来自经合组织对自然失业率估计的证据

本文研究了失业(u)及其自然率(u*)的动态，其中u*由经济合作与发展组织29个国家的实时估计来衡量。我们发现了迟滞性的有力证据:u的创新导致u*向同一方向变化，因此具有永久性影响。对于我们的基线规范，1年内u与u*的1个百分点的偏差对两个变量的长期影响为0.16个百分点。当我们允许不对称时，我们可能会惊讶地发现，u的减少比u的增加有更大的长期影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

International Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

2.50

自引率

8.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： International Finance is a highly selective ISI-accredited journal featuring literate and policy-relevant analysis in macroeconomics and finance. Specific areas of focus include: · Exchange rates · Monetary policy · Political economy · Financial markets · Corporate finance The journal''s readership extends well beyond academia into national treasuries and corporate treasuries, central banks and investment banks, and major international organizations. International Finance publishes lucid, policy-relevant writing in macroeconomics and finance backed by rigorous theory and empirical analysis. In addition to the core double-refereed articles, the journal publishes non-refereed themed book reviews by invited authors and commentary pieces by major policy figures. The editor delivers the vast majority of first-round decisions within three months.