{"title":"Risk factors and prediction models of lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma based on clinical and imaging characteristics.","authors":"Yuanyuan Deng, Jie Zhang, Jiao Wang, Jinying Wang, Junping Zhang, Lulu Guan, Shasha He, Xiudan Han, Wei Cai, Jixiong Xu","doi":"10.1080/00325481.2022.2135840","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) commonly presents with lymph node metastasis, which may be associated with worsened prognosis. This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the risk factors of lymph node metastasis in PTC based on preoperative clinical and imaging data and to construct a nomogram model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A total of 989 patients with PTC were enrolled and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts in an 8:2 ratio. Independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis in PTC were analyzed using univariate and stepwise multivariate logistic regression. An importance analysis of independent risk factors affecting lymph node metastasis was performed according to the random forest method. Subsequently, a nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis was constructed, and the predictive effect of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration curves.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Univariate regression analysis revealed that age, sex, body weight, systolic blood pressure, free triiodothyronine, nodule location, nodule number, Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS) grade on color Doppler ultrasound, enlarged lymph node present on imaging, and nodule diameter could affect lymph node metastasis in PTC. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis showed that sex, age, enlarged lymph node present on imaging, nodule diameter, and color Doppler TI-RADS grade were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis in PTC. Combining these five independent risk factors, a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram in the training and validation cohorts was 0.742 and 0.765, respectively, with a well-fitted calibration curve.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Our study showed that independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis in PTC were sex, age, enlarged lymph node present on imaging, nodule diameter, and color Doppler TI-RADS grade. The nomogram constructed based on these independent risk factors can better predict the risk of lymph node metastasis.</p>","PeriodicalId":20329,"journal":{"name":"Postgraduate Medicine","volume":"135 2","pages":"121-127"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Postgraduate Medicine","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/00325481.2022.2135840","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
Background: Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) commonly presents with lymph node metastasis, which may be associated with worsened prognosis. This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate the risk factors of lymph node metastasis in PTC based on preoperative clinical and imaging data and to construct a nomogram model to predict the risk of lymph node metastasis.
Methods: A total of 989 patients with PTC were enrolled and randomly divided into training and validation cohorts in an 8:2 ratio. Independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis in PTC were analyzed using univariate and stepwise multivariate logistic regression. An importance analysis of independent risk factors affecting lymph node metastasis was performed according to the random forest method. Subsequently, a nomogram to predict lymph node metastasis was constructed, and the predictive effect of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic analysis and calibration curves.
Results: Univariate regression analysis revealed that age, sex, body weight, systolic blood pressure, free triiodothyronine, nodule location, nodule number, Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS) grade on color Doppler ultrasound, enlarged lymph node present on imaging, and nodule diameter could affect lymph node metastasis in PTC. Stepwise multivariate regression analysis showed that sex, age, enlarged lymph node present on imaging, nodule diameter, and color Doppler TI-RADS grade were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis in PTC. Combining these five independent risk factors, a nomogram prediction model was constructed. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram in the training and validation cohorts was 0.742 and 0.765, respectively, with a well-fitted calibration curve.
Conclusion: Our study showed that independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis in PTC were sex, age, enlarged lymph node present on imaging, nodule diameter, and color Doppler TI-RADS grade. The nomogram constructed based on these independent risk factors can better predict the risk of lymph node metastasis.
期刊介绍：
Postgraduate Medicine is a rapid peer-reviewed medical journal published for physicians. Tracing its roots back to 1916, Postgraduate Medicine was established by Charles Mayo, MD, as a peer-to-peer method of communicating the latest research to aid physicians when making treatment decisions, and it maintains that aim to this day. In addition to its core subscriber base, Postgraduate Medicine is distributed to hundreds of US-based physicians within internal medicine and family practice.
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