The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 on labor markets: People’s movement and non-pharmaceutical interventions

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Kisho Hoshi , Hiroyuki Kasahara , Ryo Makioka , Michio Suzuki , Satoshi Tanaka
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引用次数: 10

Abstract

The paper investigates the heterogeneous effect of a policy-induced decline in people’s mobility on the Japanese labor market outcome during the early COVID-19 period. Regressing individual-level labor market outcomes on prefecture-level mobility changes using policy stringency index as an instrument, our two-stage least squares estimator presents the following findings. First, the number of people absent from work increased for all groups of individuals, but the magnitude was greater for workers with non-regular employment status, low-educated people, females especially with children, and those aged 31 to 45 years. Second, while work hours decreased for most groups, the magnitude was especially greater for business owners without employees and those aged 31 to 45. Third, the negative effect on unemployment was statistically significant for older males who worked as regular workers in the previous year. The impact was particularly considerable for those aged 60 and 65, thus suggesting that they lost their re-employment opportunity due to COVID-19. Fourth, all these adverse effects were greater for people working in service and sales occupations. Fifth, a counterfactual experiment of more stringent policies indicates that while an average worker would lose JPY 3857 in weekly earnings by shortening their work hours, the weekly loss for those aged 31 to 45 years and working in service and sales occupations would be about JPY 13,842.

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2019冠状病毒病对劳动力市场的异质性影响:人员流动和非药物干预
本文调查了新冠肺炎早期政策导致的人口流动性下降对日本劳动力市场结果的异质性影响。使用政策紧缩指数作为工具,回归个人层面劳动力市场对地级市流动性变化的影响,我们的两阶段最小二乘估计给出了以下发现。首先,所有人群的缺勤人数都有所增加,但非正规就业人员、受教育程度较低的人、有孩子的女性以及31至45岁的人的缺勤人数增加幅度更大。其次,虽然大多数群体的工作时间都在减少,但对于没有员工的企业主和年龄在31岁至45岁之间的人来说,减少的幅度尤其大。第三,对失业的负面影响在统计上对前一年作为正式工人工作的老年男性有显著影响。特别是60岁和65岁的老人,因为新冠疫情失去了再就业机会。第四,所有这些不利影响对从事服务和销售职业的人来说更大。第五,一项针对更严格政策的反事实实验表明,虽然缩短工作时间会使普通工人每周损失3857日元,但年龄在31至45岁之间、从事服务和销售职业的工人每周损失约13842日元。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
6.90%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.
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