Use of isotopes in examining precipitation patterns in north-central Ukraine.

Abstract

North-central Ukraine is vulnerable to temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes associated with climate change. With water management becoming increasingly important, information on current water sources and moisture recycling is critically needed. Isotope ratios of oxygen (δ¹⁸O) and hydrogen (δ²H) in precipitation are sensitive to these variables and allow comparisons across the region. The δ²H and δ¹⁸O values from collected precipitation in Kyiv and Cherkasy in 2020 and published ³H data for Kyiv from the year 2000 show an influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and provide information about processes affecting precipitation along the storm trajectory. The δ¹⁸O values also show a correlation with temperature, indicating that precipitation patterns may be affected by the rising temperatures in the region, as predicted by recent regional studies using Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios and the global climate model GFDL-ESM2M. When compared to backtracked storm trajectory and NAO data, clear relationships emerged between water isotope ratios, storm paths, and likely moisture recycling. Overall, δ²H, δ¹⁸O, ³H, and backtracked storm trajectory data provide more regional and local information on water vapour processes, improving climate-change-driven precipitation forecasts in Ukraine.