The effect of weather conditions on scores at the United States Masters golf tournament

Abstract

This paper investigates the sensitivity of golfers’ performance to meteorological conditions at the men’s US Masters tournament over the 40-year period 1980–2019. The mean and standard deviation of round scores are related to local temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, and concurrent and antecedent precipitation. Mean scores are more dependent on weather conditions than the variability of scores in a given round. The best predictor of mean scores is the wet-bulb temperature in rounds one and two, and the zonal wind speed in rounds three and four. Across both sets of rounds (1 and 2, and 3 and 4), the wet-bulb temperature is a better predictor of mean scores than the air temperature, which implies that atmospheric moisture content affects scores. In general, golfers take fewer shots and so perform better in warmer and calmer conditions. The synergestic effect of several weather variables explains over 44% of the variance in mean scores. Mean meteorological conditions during play are a much better predictor of the players’ average performance than the standard deviation of the weather variables. The golfers’ performance becomes more variable in cooler conditions with a wider range of scores. Precipitation during play and the dampness of the ground (as quantified by rainfall up to ten days before play) do not have a consistent and statistically significant effect on the competitors’ performance. In short, this paper demonstrates that golf scores are dependent on weather conditions.