Incidence trend analysis of tuberculosis in Khuzestan Province, southwest of Iran: 2010–2019

Global Epidemiology Pub Date : 2023-08-04 DOI:10.1016/j.gloepi.2023.100118

Seyed Mohammad Alavi , Mostafa Enayatrad , Bahman Cheraghian , Neda Amoori

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Abstract

Objectives

Identifying the trend of diseases and its changes over time can be highly important in evaluating the extent and method of achieving strategies for controlling them, developing health indicators, and health planning. This study aimed to investigate the incidence of tuberculosis.

Methods

As a repeated cross-sectional study in which the population under study was a census, this study involved all tuberculosis cases registered in 21 cities of Southwest of Iran, from 2010 to 2019. Data were obtained from the National System of Notification of Tuberculosis and included variables related to age, sex and Disease consequence. Segmented regression models were used to analyze the trend of tuberculosis changes. Also, data analysis software- Join Point Regression version 5.0.2 was used for data analysis.

Results

The results of evaluating the trend of tuberculosis from 2010 to 2019 showed no change in the general trend of tuberculosis and an annual 0.84% (95% CI: ‐5.17 to 6.82) increase in incidence rate is observed in the trend. Also, the findings of join point regression analysis show that between 2010 and 2013, an annual 18.10% (95% CI: 8.78 to 34.89) increase in the incidence of tuberculosis, and between 2013 and 2019, annual −5.42% (95% CI: −10.04 to −2.22) decrease in the incidence of tuberculosis was observed. From 2010 to 2012, a 33.10% (95% CI: 15.77 to 48.06) annual increase in the incidence of tuberculosis in males and − 9.47% (95%CI: −14.02 to −6.33) annual decrease in the incidence of tuberculosis in females was observed.

Conclusions

The results of this study showed that the incidence of tuberculosis had an upward trend from 2010 to 2013 and a downward trend from 2013 onwards.

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伊朗西南部胡齐斯坦省2010-2019年结核病发病趋势分析

目的识别疾病的趋势及其随时间的变化对于评估实现控制疾病策略的程度和方法、制定健康指标和健康规划非常重要。本研究旨在调查肺结核的发病率。方法作为一项重复的横断面研究，研究对象为人口普查，本研究涉及2010年至2019年伊朗西南部21个城市登记的所有结核病病例。数据来自国家结核病通报系统，包括与年龄、性别和疾病后果有关的变量。采用分段回归模型分析肺结核的变化趋势。此外，数据分析软件Join Point Regression 5.0.2版也用于数据分析。结果2010-2019年结核病趋势评估结果显示，结核病的总体趋势没有变化，发病率在趋势中每年增加0.84%（95%CI:5.17-6.82）。此外，连接点回归分析的结果显示，在2010年至2013年期间，结核病发病率每年增加18.10%（95%CI:8.78至34.89），在2013年至2019年期间，肺结核发病率每年下降−5.42%（95%CI:−10.04至−2.22）。从2010年到2012年，男性结核病发病率每年增加33.10%（95%CI:15.77到48.06），女性结核病发病率年下降-9.47%（95%CI:14.02到-6.33）。结论本研究结果表明，2010-2013年结核病发病率呈上升趋势，2013年以后呈下降趋势。

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