The impact of climatic conditions on the dynamics of tick-borne encephalitis in Slovakia in 2012-2016.

Abstract

Objectives: The main aim of our work was to analyse the development of the dynamics of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) in connection with climatic conditions in Slovakia in 2012-2016.

Material and methods: We performed the analysis based on the data provided by the Epidemiological Information System and the Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute. The study group consisted of 639 patients with confirmed diagnosis.

Results: The highest incidence of TBE was recorded in 2016. The highest standardized incidence rate of TBE was in the districts of the Trenčín, Žilina and Banská Bystrica regions. The relation of TBE to air temperature showed that most cases of TBE were recorded at an air temperature of 10-20 °C during the months of May to October in 2012-2016. The relationship between air temperature and number of days with snow cover and the number of TBE cases proved to be statistically significant (p-value < 0.001). There is a statistically significant difference in the average number of disease cases according to the air temperature category (p-value = 0.03). This disease occurs mainly in districts with an altitude of 200-400 m a. s. l. The dynamics of TBE in Slovakia is two-peaked with a decline in August. The main season of the disease lasts from May to October, peaking during the summer months of June and July.

Conclusion: The results of the study point to a prognosis of the development of the disease in connection with air temperature. Based on the findings that in recent years we have observed a slightly increasing trend of TBE in Slovakia due to climate change, this disease is considered a persistent public health problem.