朝鲜贸易与东北亚一体化

Kiril Tochkov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

作为世界上最孤立的国家之一,朝鲜近年来一直是制裁和贸易限制的目标。本文研究了1989年至2016年期间朝鲜与其19个主要贸易伙伴的贸易模式。此外,本文通过在重力模型框架中估计边界效应,量化了朝鲜与世界其他地区之间的贸易壁垒。调查结果表明,近20年来,朝鲜与发达国家的贸易一直在下降,而与新兴经济体的贸易一直在加强。在过去的十年里,除了中国,几乎所有国家的贸易都崩溃了。回归结果表明,尽管韩国是朝鲜的第二大贸易伙伴,但在控制了距离、邻近和经济规模之后,韩国面临着最高的贸易壁垒。新兴经济体的贸易壁垒最低,而自本世纪初以来,发达国家的边境效应急剧上升。中国对朝鲜的贸易成本-à-vis高于世界其他地区,但在过去20年里保持相对稳定。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
North Korea's trade and the integration of Northeast Asia

In addition to being one of the most isolated countries in the world, North Korea has been the target of sanctions and trade restrictions in recent years. This paper examines the trade patterns of North Korea with its 19 major trading partners over the period 1989–2016. Moreover, the paper quantifies the trade barriers between North Korea and the rest of the world by estimating border effects in a gravity model framework. The findings indicate that North Korea's trade with developed countries has been declining for almost two decades, while trade with emerging economies has been intensifying. Over the last decade, trade with almost all countries has collapsed with the exception of China. The regression results imply that despite being the second largest trading partner, South Korea faces the highest trade barriers with North Korea, after controlling for distance, contiguity, and economic size. Emerging economies recorded the lowest trade hurdles, while developed countries witnessed a dramatic rise in border effects since the early 2000s. China's trade costs vis-à-vis North Korea are higher than for the rest of the world but remained relatively stable over the past two decades.

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