Planning vascular access creation: The promising role of the kidney failure risk equation.

Background: Planning for vascular access (VA) creation is essential in pre-dialysis patients although optimal timing for VA referral and placement is debatable. Guidelines suggest referral when eGFR is 15-20 mL/min/1.73 m². This study aimed to validate the use of kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) in VA planning.

Methods: Retrospective analysis of all adult patients with CKD who were referred for first VA placement, namely AVF or AVG, at a tertiary center, between January 2018 and December 2019. The four-variable KFRE was calculated. Start of KRT, mortality, and VA placement were assessed in a 2-year follow-up. We used Cox regression to predict KRT start and calculated the ROC curve.

Results: 256 patients were included and 64.5% were male, mean age was 70.4 ± 12.9 years and mean eGFR was 16.09 ± 10.43 mL/min/1.73 m². One hundred fifty-nine patients required KRT (62.1%) and 72 (28.1%) died in the 2-year follow-up. The KFRE accurately predicted KRT start within 2-years (38.3 ± 23.8% vs 17.6 ± 20.9%, p < 0.001; HR 1.05 95% CI (1.06-1.12), p < 0.001), with an auROC of 0.788 (p < 0.001, 95% CI (0.733-0.837)). The optimal KFRE cut-off was >20%, with a HR of 9.2 (95% CI (5.06-16.60), p < 0.001). Patients with KFRE ⩾ 20% had a significant lower mean time from VA consult to KRT initiation (10.8 ± 9.4 vs 15.6 ± 10.3 months, p < 0.001). On a sub-analysis of patients with an eGFR < 20 mL/min/1.73 m², a KFRE ⩾ 20% was also a significant predictor of 2-year start of KRT, with an HR of 6.61 (95% CI (3.49-12.52), p < 0.001).

Conclusion: KFRE accurately predicted 2-year KRT start in this cohort of patients. A KFRE ⩾ 20% can help to establish higher priority patients for VA placement. The authors suggest referral for VA creation when eGFR < 20 mL/min/1.73 m² and KFRE ⩾ 20%.