Psychosocial Risk Stratification in Upper Extremity Transplantation Candidates.

Background: Candidate selection for upper extremity transplantation remains an inherently subjective process. This work evaluated the effect that psychosocial factors have on outcomes, both to standardize evaluation of potential candidates and in optimizing these factors prior to transplantation. Our goal was to measure and quantify the risk that various psychosocial factors have on transplant outcomes.

Methods: Given that we do not have sufficient post-transplant patients to examine specific factors, we chose to have experts in the field evaluate hypothetical patients based on their experience. We used a Generalized Estimating Equation to estimate and compare surgical candidacy scores using patient scenario vignettes based on the presence or absence of permutations of the following: (1) depression; (2) participation in occupational therapy (OT); (3) expectation of post-transplant function; (4) punctuality; and (5) family support were given to experts in the field.

Results: This work suggests there is a decrease in predicted success with increasing numbers of negative factors with participation in OT and realistic expectations of outcomes being most important. An increase in the summarizing risk score from 0 to 1.7 was associated with a decrease in the outcome surgical candidacy score from 8.6 to 5.3, meaning candidates with 2 risk factors would often observe a large drop in surgical candidacy score.

Conclusions: Focusing on optimizing psychosocial variables in transplant candidates may help improve hand transplant success.