{"title":"对高发行量报纸上报道的有前景的临床研究的20年随访:一项荟萃流行病学研究。","authors":"Aran Tajika, Yasushi Tsujimoto, Akira Onishi, Yusuke Tsutsumi, Satoshi Funada, Yusuke Ogawa, Nozomi Takeshima, Yu Hayasaka, Naotsugu Iwakami, Toshi A Furukawa","doi":"10.1136/bmjhci-2023-100768","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Researchers have identified cases in which newspaper stories have exaggerated the results of medical studies reported in original articles. Moreover, the exaggeration sometimes begins with journal articles. We examined what proportion of the studies quoted in newspaper stories were confirmed.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We identified newspaper stories from 2000 that mentioned the effectiveness of certain treatments or preventions based on original studies from 40 main medical journals. We searched for subsequent studies until June 2022 with the same topic and stronger research design than each original study. The results of the original studies were verified by comparison with those of subsequent studies.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We identified 164 original articles from 1298 newspaper stories and randomly selected 100 of them. Four studies were not found to be effective in terms of the primary outcome, and 18 had no subsequent studies. Of the remaining studies, the proportion of confirmed studies was 68.6% (95% CI 58.1% to 77.5%). Among the 59 confirmed studies, 13 of 16 studies were considered to have been replicated in terms of effect size. However, the results of the remaining 43 studies were not comparable.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>In the dichotomous judgement of effectiveness, about two-thirds of the results were nominally confirmed by subsequent studies. However, for most confirmed results, it was impossible to determine whether the effect sizes were stable.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Newspaper readers should be aware that some claims made by high-quality newspapers based on high-profile journal articles may be overturned by subsequent studies within the next 20 years.</p>","PeriodicalId":9050,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Health & Care Informatics","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.1000,"publicationDate":"2023-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/4e/3f/bmjhci-2023-100768.PMC10277065.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Twenty-year follow-up of promising clinical studies reported in highly circulated newspapers: a meta-epidemiological study.\",\"authors\":\"Aran Tajika, Yasushi Tsujimoto, Akira Onishi, Yusuke Tsutsumi, Satoshi Funada, Yusuke Ogawa, Nozomi Takeshima, Yu Hayasaka, Naotsugu Iwakami, Toshi A Furukawa\",\"doi\":\"10.1136/bmjhci-2023-100768\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>Researchers have identified cases in which newspaper stories have exaggerated the results of medical studies reported in original articles. Moreover, the exaggeration sometimes begins with journal articles. We examined what proportion of the studies quoted in newspaper stories were confirmed.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We identified newspaper stories from 2000 that mentioned the effectiveness of certain treatments or preventions based on original studies from 40 main medical journals. We searched for subsequent studies until June 2022 with the same topic and stronger research design than each original study. The results of the original studies were verified by comparison with those of subsequent studies.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We identified 164 original articles from 1298 newspaper stories and randomly selected 100 of them. Four studies were not found to be effective in terms of the primary outcome, and 18 had no subsequent studies. Of the remaining studies, the proportion of confirmed studies was 68.6% (95% CI 58.1% to 77.5%). Among the 59 confirmed studies, 13 of 16 studies were considered to have been replicated in terms of effect size. However, the results of the remaining 43 studies were not comparable.</p><p><strong>Discussion: </strong>In the dichotomous judgement of effectiveness, about two-thirds of the results were nominally confirmed by subsequent studies. However, for most confirmed results, it was impossible to determine whether the effect sizes were stable.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Newspaper readers should be aware that some claims made by high-quality newspapers based on high-profile journal articles may be overturned by subsequent studies within the next 20 years.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":9050,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"BMJ Health & Care Informatics\",\"volume\":\"30 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/pmc/oa_pdf/4e/3f/bmjhci-2023-100768.PMC10277065.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"BMJ Health & Care Informatics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjhci-2023-100768\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"BMJ Health & Care Informatics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjhci-2023-100768","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
目的:研究人员已经确定了一些案例,在这些案例中,报纸报道夸大了原始文章中报道的医学研究结果。此外,这种夸张有时始于期刊文章。我们检查了报纸报道中引用的研究中有多少是被证实的。方法:我们根据40个主要医学期刊的原始研究,从2000年的报纸报道中发现了某些治疗或预防措施的有效性。直到2022年6月,我们检索了与每个原始研究相同主题且研究设计更强的后续研究。通过与后续研究的比较,验证了原始研究的结果。结果:我们从1298篇报纸报道中识别出164篇原创文章,并随机抽取其中的100篇。4项研究在主要结果方面没有发现有效,18项研究没有后续研究。在其余的研究中,证实的研究比例为68.6% (95% CI 58.1% ~ 77.5%)。在已证实的59项研究中,16项研究中有13项被认为在效应大小方面被重复。然而,其余43项研究的结果不具有可比性。讨论:在有效性的二分法判断中,约有三分之二的结果被后续研究名义上证实。然而,对于大多数已确认的结果,无法确定效应量是否稳定。结论:报纸读者应该意识到,在未来20年内,一些高质量报纸基于高知名度期刊文章所提出的主张可能会被后续研究推翻。
Twenty-year follow-up of promising clinical studies reported in highly circulated newspapers: a meta-epidemiological study.
Objectives: Researchers have identified cases in which newspaper stories have exaggerated the results of medical studies reported in original articles. Moreover, the exaggeration sometimes begins with journal articles. We examined what proportion of the studies quoted in newspaper stories were confirmed.
Methods: We identified newspaper stories from 2000 that mentioned the effectiveness of certain treatments or preventions based on original studies from 40 main medical journals. We searched for subsequent studies until June 2022 with the same topic and stronger research design than each original study. The results of the original studies were verified by comparison with those of subsequent studies.
Results: We identified 164 original articles from 1298 newspaper stories and randomly selected 100 of them. Four studies were not found to be effective in terms of the primary outcome, and 18 had no subsequent studies. Of the remaining studies, the proportion of confirmed studies was 68.6% (95% CI 58.1% to 77.5%). Among the 59 confirmed studies, 13 of 16 studies were considered to have been replicated in terms of effect size. However, the results of the remaining 43 studies were not comparable.
Discussion: In the dichotomous judgement of effectiveness, about two-thirds of the results were nominally confirmed by subsequent studies. However, for most confirmed results, it was impossible to determine whether the effect sizes were stable.
Conclusions: Newspaper readers should be aware that some claims made by high-quality newspapers based on high-profile journal articles may be overturned by subsequent studies within the next 20 years.