Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of the incidence of lung cancer in the North West of Algeria, 2014–2020

Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer worldwide. This study assessed the spatio-temporal variations of the incidence rate of lung cancer between 2014 and 2020 in Chlef, a province in the North West of Algeria.

Case data recoded by municipality, sex and age were collected from the oncology department in a local hospital. A hierarchical Bayesian spatial model, adjusted by urbanization level, with zero inflated Poisson distribution was used to study the variation of lung cancer incidence.

A total of 250 lung cancer cases were registered during the study period, with a crude incidence rate of 4.12 per 100,000 inhabitants. The results of the model showed that residents in urban municipalities had a significantly higher risk of lung cancer than those in rural municipalities: incidence ratio rate (IRR) = 2.83 (95% CI: 1.91 – 4.31) and 1.80 (95% CI: 1.02 - 3.16) for men and women, respectively. In addition, the estimated incidence rate by the model for both sexes in the Chlef province indicated that only three urban municipalities had a higher incidence rate of lung cancer than the average of the province.

The results of our study suggest that the risk factors for lung cancer in the North West of Algeria were mainly related to the level of urbanization. Our findings provide important information to guide the health authorities in designing measures for the surveillance and control of lung cancer.