1960 年至 2014 年美国暴力犯罪模式的队列变异:年龄-时期-队列-互动方法》。

IF 2.8 1区 社会学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY
Journal of Quantitative Criminology Pub Date : 2021-12-01 Epub Date: 2020-10-03 DOI:10.1007/s10940-020-09477-3
Yunmei Lu, Liying Luo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究目的:犯罪学以往的研究忽视了群组效应对犯罪的影响应具有年龄-时间特异性(Ryder 在 Am Sociol Rev 30(6):843-861, 1965),因此假定群组效应在整个生命过程中是相同的。目前的研究将群组效应建模为社会变革对不同年龄组的不同影响,从而解决了这些局限性。这种新的操作方法与 Ryder 的概念密切相关,我们利用这种新的操作方法研究了暴力犯罪的队列间差异和队列内动态:我们使用罗(Luo)和霍奇斯(Hodges)(《2020 年社会学方法研究》(Sociol Methods Res 2020))开发的年龄-时期-队列-互动(APC-I)模型,分析了 1960 年至 2014 年期间 UCR 针对抢劫、严重伤害和凶杀的特定年龄逮捕统计数据。具体而言,我们估计并检验了两类队列变异:平均队列偏差和生命历程动态:我们的研究结果表明,在不同年龄段存在不同程度的队列偏差。早期婴儿潮一代(出生于 1945 年至 1954 年之间)和晚期婴儿潮一代(出生于 1955 年至 1964 年之间)在抢劫被捕方面表现出不同的队列内动态,而暴力流行病队列(出生于 1975 年至 1984 年之间)杀人被捕的高风险似乎是由年轻时的队列偏差驱动的:本研究中引入的 APC-I 框架为犯罪学文献中尚未研究的暴力犯罪队列效应的动态方面提供了新的视角。关于队列效应的犯罪学研究将受益于从队列效应恒定和相加的问题假设转向 APC-I 框架所代表的动态和互动方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

Cohort Variation in U.S. Violent Crime Patterns from 1960 to 2014: An Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction Approach.

Cohort Variation in U.S. Violent Crime Patterns from 1960 to 2014: An Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction Approach.

Objectives: Previous research in criminology has overlooked that cohort effects on crime should be age-time-specific (Ryder in Am Sociol Rev 30(6):843-861, 1965) and consequently assumed cohort effects to be the same across the life course. The current study addresses these limitations by modeling cohort effects as the differential impacts of social change depending on age groups. With this new operationalization that is closely tied to Ryder's conceptualization, we examine both inter-cohort differences and intra-cohort dynamics in violent crime.

Methods: We use the age-period-cohort-interaction (APC-I) model developed by Luo and Hodges (Sociol Methods Res 2020) to analyze the UCR age-specific arrest statistics for robbery, aggravated assaults, and homicide from 1960 to 2014. Specifically, we estimate and test two types of cohort variation: average cohort deviations and life-course dynamics.

Results: Our findings reveal varying degrees of cohort deviations at different ages. The early boomers (born between 1945 and 1954) and the late boomers (born between 1955 and 1964) demonstrate different intra-cohort dynamics of robbery arrest, and the violence epidemic cohorts' (born between 1975 and 1984) high risks of homicide arrest appear to be driven by cohort deviations at young ages.

Conclusions: The APC-I framework introduced in this study provides new insights into the dynamic aspect of cohort effects on violent crime that have not been examined in the criminological literature. Criminological studies on cohort effects would benefit by shifting away from the problematic assumption of constant and additive cohort effects to the dynamic and interactive approach represented by the APC-I framework.

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来源期刊
Journal of Quantitative Criminology
Journal of Quantitative Criminology CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-
CiteScore
7.70
自引率
2.80%
发文量
24
期刊介绍: The Journal of Quantitative Criminology focuses on research advances from such fields as statistics, sociology, geography, political science, economics, and engineering. This timely journal publishes papers that apply quantitative techniques of all levels of complexity to substantive, methodological, or evaluative concerns of interest to the criminological community. Features include original research, brief methodological critiques, and papers that explore new directions for studying a broad range of criminological topics.
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