A Comparative Study on Predictive Validity of Modified Shock Index, Shock Index, and Age Shock Index in Predicting the Need for Mechanical Ventilation among Sepsis Patients in a Tertiary Care Hospital.

Introduction: The shock index (SI), modified shock index (MSI), and age multiplied by SI (ASI) are used to assess the severity of shock. They are also used to predict the mortality of trauma patients, but their validity for sepsis patients is controversial. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive value of the SI, MSI, and ASI in predicting the need for mechanical ventilation after 24 h of admission among sepsis patients.

Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary care teaching hospital. Patients with sepsis (235) diagnosed based on systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria and quick sequential organ failure assessment were included in the study. The need for mechanical ventilation after 24 h is the outcome variables MSI, SI, and ASI were considered as predictor variables. The utility of MSI, SI, and ASI in predicting mechanical ventilation was assessed by receiver operative curve analysis. Data were analyzed using coGuide.

Results: Among the study population, the mean age was 56.12 ± 17.28 years. MSI value at the time of disposition from the emergency room had good predictive validity in predicting mechanical ventilation after 24 h, as indicated by the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.81 (P < 0.001), SI and ASI had fair predictive validity for mechanical ventilation as indicated by AUC (0.78, P < 0.001) and (0.802, P < 0.001), respectively.

Conclusion: SI had better sensitivity (78.57%) and specificity (77.07%) compared to ASI and MSI in predicting the need for mechanical ventilation after 24 h in sepsis patients admitted to intensive care units.