什么是级联灾难?

David Alexander, Gianluca Pescaroli
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引用次数: 25

摘要

瀑布已经成为灾害研究的新范式。现代人口对关键基础设施和网络的高度依赖使灾害的影响能够通过社会经济系统传播。在漏洞重叠和交互的地方,会创建升级点,这些升级点可以创建比主要事件影响更大的次要影响。本文解释了如何对复杂性进行分类和分析,以便找到社会中能够产生级联影响的弱点。场景可用于识别关键的依赖关系,并指导旨在增加弹性的措施。经验表明,级联灾害的许多潜在影响仍未得到调查,这为影响升级为复杂形式的危机提供了充分的空间。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

What are cascading disasters?

What are cascading disasters?

What are cascading disasters?

What are cascading disasters?

Cascades have emerged as a new paradigm in disaster studies. The high level of dependency of modern populations on critical infrastructure and networks allows the impact of disasters to propagate through socio-economic systems. Where vulnerabilities overlap and interact, escalation points are created that can create secondary effects with greater impact than the primary event. This article explains how complexity can be categorised and analysed in order to find those weak points in society that enable cascading impacts to develop. Scenarios can be used to identify critical dependencies and guide measures designed to increase resilience. Experience suggests that many potential impacts of cascading disasters remain uninvestigated, which provides ample scope for escalation of impacts into complex forms of crisis.

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