Decoupling effect and driving factors of carbon footprint in megacity Wuhan, Central China.

Background: China's 35 largest cities, including Wuhan, are inhabited by approximately 18% of the Chinese population, and account for 40% energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Wuhan is the only sub-provincial city in Central China and, as the eighth largest economy nationwide, has experienced a notable increase in energy consumption. However, major knowledge gaps exist in understanding the nexus of economic development and carbon footprint and their drivers in Wuhan.

Methods: We studied Wuhan for the evolutionary characteristics of its carbon footprint (CF), the decoupling relationship between economic development and CF, and the essential drivers of CF. Based on the CF model, we quantified the dynamic trends of CF, carbon carrying capacity, carbon deficit, and carbon deficit pressure index from 2001 to 2020. We also adopted a decoupling model to clarify the coupled dynamics among total CF, its accounts, and economic development. We used the partial least squares method to analyze the influencing factors of Wuhan's CF and determine the main drivers.

Results: The CF of Wuhan increased from 36.01 million t CO₂eq in 2001 to 70.07 million t CO₂eq in 2020, a growth rate of 94.61%, which was much faster than that of the carbon carrying capacity. The energy consumption account (84.15%) far exceeded other accounts, and was mostly contributed by raw coal, coke, and crude oil. The carbon deficit pressure index fluctuated in the range of 8.44-6.74%, indicating that Wuhan was in the relief zone and the mild enhancement zone during 2001-2020. Around the same time, Wuhan was in a transition stage between weak and strong CF decoupling and economic growth. The main driving factor of CF growth was the urban per capita residential building area, while energy consumption per unit of GDP was responsible for the CF decline.

Conclusions: Our research highlights the interaction of urban ecological and economic systems, and that Wuhan's CF changes were mainly affected by four factors: city size, economic development, social consumption, and technological progress. The findings are of realistic significance in promoting low-carbon urban development and improving the city's sustainability, and the related policies can offer an excellent benchmark for other cities with similar challenges.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13717-023-00435-y.