Predictive factors of fragility fractures and associated mortality: assessment of patients observed at emergency department.

Aim: To assess the predictive factors for a subsequent fragility fracture (FF) and mortality.

Methods: Retrospective monocentric study including patients observed at the emergency department (ED) of a referral hospital with a FF, between 1st January 2017 and 31st December 2018. Fractures events were identified through discharge codes using the 9th International Classification of Diseases codes and FF were adjudicated after revision of the clinical files. We identified 1673 patients with FF. After calculating a representative sample (95% confidence interval), 172 hip, 173 wrist and 112 vertebral fractures were included in the analysis. Their clinical files were reviewed until 31st December 2020. A multivariate analysis was performed in order to identify predictive factors for FF.

Results: Overall, during the follow-up period 76 patients (16.6%) had a new FF and 120 patients (26.3%) died. Multivariate analysis showed that previous visits to the ED due to falls (p=0.002) and malignancy (p=0.026) were independent risk factors for a new FF. The main predictors of mortality were age, hip fracture, oral corticosteroid treatment, normal or low BMI and cardiac, neurologic or chronic kidney disease.

Conclusions: FF are a very prevalent public health problem that can lead to significant morbidity and death. Certain comorbidities seem to be associated with new FF and increased mortality. There might be a substantial missed opportunity for intervention in these patients, namely in ED visits.