Ten-year follow-up investigation of stroke risk in systemic lupus erythematosus.

Background and purpose: To analyse the long-term risk of ischaemic stroke and the clinical effects of antithrombotics on the risk of haemorrhagic stroke in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using a population-based database taken from Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Patients with SLE between 2000 and 2008 were registered and matched with two controls by the index date, age, gender and Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). These subjects were followed until either stroke event or 31 December 2013. Adjusted HRs (aHRs) for strokes were estimated with Cox regression models, and the cumulative incidence of ischaemic stroke was analysed by log-rank test and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.

Results: In total, 8310 patients with SLE and 16 620 patients without SLE were included. In general, patients with SLE had higher rates of ischaemic stroke (5.4% vs 3.3%) and haemorrhagic stroke (1.5% vs 0.6%) than in controls. In multivariate analysis adjusted to age, gender, CCI, urbanisation level and antithrombotics uses, aHRs of all strokes, ischaemic stroke and haemorrhagic stroke were 1.73 (95% CI: 1.54 to 1.94), 1.65 (95% CI: 1.45 to 1.87) and 2.24 (95% CI: 1.71 to 2.95), respectively, in patients with SLE. Patients with SLE were significantly more likely to suffer ischaemic stroke than patients without SLE, even 10 years after SLE diagnosis (6.12% vs 3.50%, p<0.001). Antiplatelet use increased the risk of haemorrhagic stroke in SLE group (aHR=1.74, 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.57).

Conclusions: Patients with SLE are at greater risk of developing ischaemic stroke that lasts for 10 years. Antiplatelets should be carefully administered to prevent cardiovascular events in patients with SLE due to the risk of haemorrhagic stroke.