Ali Davoudi Kiakalayeh, Morteza Rahbar Taramsari, Reza Mohammadi, Sajad Davoudi Kiakalayeh, Hassan Kavakpour
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Comparison of the capture-recapture method and seroprevalence survey for estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Background: Reliable estimation of prevalence is important for monitoring and evaluation of COVID-19 prevention programmes among at-risk populations.
Aims: We compared the capture-recapture method with a seroprevalence survey for accurate estimation of the prevalence of COVID-19 during a 1-year period in Guilan Province, northern Islamic Republic of Iran.
Methods: We used the capture-recapture method to estimate the prevalence of COVID-19. Records from the primary care registry system and the Medical Care Monitoring Center were compared, using 4 matching approaches based on combinations of the following variables: name, age, gender, date of death, positive or negative cases, and alive or dead cases.
Results: The estimated prevalence of COVID-19 in the study population from the beginning of the pandemic in February 2020 until the end of January 2021 was 16.2-19.8%, depending on the matching approach used, which was lower than in previous studies.
Conclusion: The capture-recapture method may provide better accuracy than seroprevalence surveys in measuring the prevalence of COVID-19. This method may also reduce the bias in the estimation of prevalence and correct the misconception of policymakers about seroprevalence survey results.
期刊介绍：
The Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal, established in 1995, is the flagship health periodical of the World Health Organization Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean.
The mission of the Journal is to contribute to improving health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region by publishing and publicising quality health research and information with emphasis on public health and the strategic health priorities of the Region. It aims to: further public health knowledge, policy, practice and education; support health policy-makers, researchers and practitioners; and enable health professionals to remain informed of developments in public health.
The EMHJ:
-publishes original peer-reviewed research and reviews in all areas of public health of relevance to the Eastern Mediterranean Region
-encourages, in particular, research related to the regional health priorities, namely: health systems strengthening; emergency preparedness and response; communicable diseases; noncommunicable diseases and mental health; reproductive, maternal, child health and nutrition
-provides up-to-date information on public health developments with special reference to the Region.
The Journal addresses all members of the health profession, health educational institutes, as well as governmental and nongovernmental organizations in the area of public health within and outside the Region.
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