{"title":"用于检验关于线性两水平模型的固定效应的零假设的默认贝叶斯因子。","authors":"Nikola Sekulovski, Herbert Hoijtink","doi":"10.1037/met0000573","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Testing null hypotheses of the form \"β = 0,\" by the use of various Null Hypothesis Significance Tests (rendering a dichotomous reject/not reject decision), is considered standard practice when evaluating the individual parameters of statistical models. Bayes factors for testing these (and other) hypotheses allow users to quantify the evidence in the data that is in favor of a hypothesis. Unfortunately, when testing equality-contained hypotheses, the Bayes factors are sensitive to the specification of prior distributions, which may be hard to specify by applied researchers. The paper proposes a default Bayes factor with clear operating characteristics when used for testing whether the fixed parameters of linear two-level models are equal to zero. This is achieved by generalizing an already existing approach for linear regression. The generalization requires: (a) the sample size for which a new estimator for the effective sample size in two-level models containing random slopes is proposed; (b) the effect size for the fixed effects for which the so-called <i>marginal R</i>² for the fixed effects is used. Implementing the aforementioned requirements in a small simulation study shows that the Bayes factor yields clear operating characteristics regardless of the value for sample size and the estimation method. The paper gives practical examples and access to an easy-to-use wrapper function to calculate Bayes factors for hypotheses with respect to the fixed coefficients of linear two-level models by using the R package bain. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).</p>","PeriodicalId":20782,"journal":{"name":"Psychological methods","volume":" ","pages":"579-598"},"PeriodicalIF":7.8000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A default Bayes factor for testing null hypotheses about the fixed effects of linear two-level models.\",\"authors\":\"Nikola Sekulovski, Herbert Hoijtink\",\"doi\":\"10.1037/met0000573\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Testing null hypotheses of the form \\\"β = 0,\\\" by the use of various Null Hypothesis Significance Tests (rendering a dichotomous reject/not reject decision), is considered standard practice when evaluating the individual parameters of statistical models. Bayes factors for testing these (and other) hypotheses allow users to quantify the evidence in the data that is in favor of a hypothesis. Unfortunately, when testing equality-contained hypotheses, the Bayes factors are sensitive to the specification of prior distributions, which may be hard to specify by applied researchers. The paper proposes a default Bayes factor with clear operating characteristics when used for testing whether the fixed parameters of linear two-level models are equal to zero. This is achieved by generalizing an already existing approach for linear regression. The generalization requires: (a) the sample size for which a new estimator for the effective sample size in two-level models containing random slopes is proposed; (b) the effect size for the fixed effects for which the so-called <i>marginal R</i>² for the fixed effects is used. Implementing the aforementioned requirements in a small simulation study shows that the Bayes factor yields clear operating characteristics regardless of the value for sample size and the estimation method. The paper gives practical examples and access to an easy-to-use wrapper function to calculate Bayes factors for hypotheses with respect to the fixed coefficients of linear two-level models by using the R package bain. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":20782,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Psychological methods\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"579-598\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":7.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Psychological methods\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000573\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2023/4/27 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Psychological methods","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1037/met0000573","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2023/4/27 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
在评估统计模型的单个参数时,通过使用各种零假设显著性检验(呈现二分类拒绝/不拒绝决策)来检验形式为“β = 0”的零假设被认为是标准做法。用于测试这些(和其他)假设的贝叶斯因子允许用户量化数据中支持假设的证据。不幸的是,当检验包含等式的假设时,贝叶斯因子对先验分布的规范很敏感,而应用研究人员可能很难指定先验分布。本文在检验线性两级模型的固定参数是否为零时,提出了一个操作特征明确的默认贝叶斯因子。这是通过推广已经存在的线性回归方法实现的。泛化要求:(a)在包含随机斜率的两水平模型中提出新的有效样本量估计量的样本量;(b)使用所谓的固定效应边际R²的固定效应的效应大小。在小型模拟研究中实现上述要求表明,无论样本量的值和估计方法如何,Bayes因子都能产生清晰的操作特征。本文给出了实际的例子,并使用了一个易于使用的包装函数来计算关于线性两层模型的固定系数的假设的贝叶斯因子。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA,版权所有)。
A default Bayes factor for testing null hypotheses about the fixed effects of linear two-level models.
Testing null hypotheses of the form "β = 0," by the use of various Null Hypothesis Significance Tests (rendering a dichotomous reject/not reject decision), is considered standard practice when evaluating the individual parameters of statistical models. Bayes factors for testing these (and other) hypotheses allow users to quantify the evidence in the data that is in favor of a hypothesis. Unfortunately, when testing equality-contained hypotheses, the Bayes factors are sensitive to the specification of prior distributions, which may be hard to specify by applied researchers. The paper proposes a default Bayes factor with clear operating characteristics when used for testing whether the fixed parameters of linear two-level models are equal to zero. This is achieved by generalizing an already existing approach for linear regression. The generalization requires: (a) the sample size for which a new estimator for the effective sample size in two-level models containing random slopes is proposed; (b) the effect size for the fixed effects for which the so-called marginal R² for the fixed effects is used. Implementing the aforementioned requirements in a small simulation study shows that the Bayes factor yields clear operating characteristics regardless of the value for sample size and the estimation method. The paper gives practical examples and access to an easy-to-use wrapper function to calculate Bayes factors for hypotheses with respect to the fixed coefficients of linear two-level models by using the R package bain. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).
期刊介绍:
Psychological Methods is devoted to the development and dissemination of methods for collecting, analyzing, understanding, and interpreting psychological data. Its purpose is the dissemination of innovations in research design, measurement, methodology, and quantitative and qualitative analysis to the psychological community; its further purpose is to promote effective communication about related substantive and methodological issues. The audience is expected to be diverse and to include those who develop new procedures, those who are responsible for undergraduate and graduate training in design, measurement, and statistics, as well as those who employ those procedures in research.