The risk of diabetes after giving birth to a macrosomic infant: data from the NHANES cohort.

Aims: Gestational diabetes (GDM) increases the risk of developing type 2 diabetes and thus warrants earlier and more frequent screening. Women who give birth to a macrosomic infant, as defined as a birthweight greater than 9 lbs. (or approximately 4000 g), are encouraged to also get early type 2 diabetes screening, as macrosomia may be a surrogate marker for GDM. This study investigates whether a macrosomic infant, as defined as 9lbs, apart from GDM, increases the risk for diabetes later in life.

Methods: Data on parous women from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2007-2016 were utilized. Rates of diabetes were compared in those with and without macrosomic infants in Rao-Scott's chi-square test. Multiple logistic regression was used to test the independent effect of macrosomia on type 2 diabetes controlling for the confounding covariates and adjusting for the complex sampling design. To investigate how onset time affects diabetes, we implemented Cox proportional hazard regressions on time to have diabetes.

Results: Among 10,089 parous women, macrosomia significantly increased the risk of maternal diabetes later in life in the chi-square test and logistic regression. Independent of GDM, women who deliver a macrosomic infant have a 20% higher chance of developing diabetes compared to women who did not. The expected hazards of having type 2 diabetes is 1.66 times higher in a woman with macrosomic infant compared to counterparts.

Conclusions: Women who gave birth to a macrosomic infant in the absence of GDM should be offered earlier and more frequent screening for type 2 diabetes.