主要宏观经济变量对伊朗钢铁进出口的影响

Nasrin Esmaeili Todshki, Ali Ranjbaraki
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引用次数: 10

摘要

考虑到伊朗在“钢铁生产和加工”以及金属制品方面存在的相对优势和比较优势,本研究重点考察宏观经济变量对战略(主要)产品的影响。工业品交易作为不同国家的增长和发展引擎。此外,提供先锋钢铁生产和经营伊朗经济的其他经济部门也得到了发展。本研究采用Youhanson长期收敛检验和Grangery原因检验,对关系类型和伊朗宏观经济变量(国民生产总值、全球油价、人口和国内钢铁产量)的影响调查进行分析,分析1975-2011年期间伊朗的钢铁进出口情况。结果表明,“粗钢出口”与“国民生产总值、全球油价、人口、国内钢铁产量”之间存在显著的正相关关系。“粗钢进口”与“国民生产总值、国际油价、人口、国内钢铁产量”之间存在显著的正相关关系。Grangery原因检验结果指出“粗钢进出口”与“伊朗宏观经济变量”之间存在双边显著关系。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Major Macroeconomic Variables on Iran's Steel Import and Export

Considering the existing relative and comparative advantages in “steel's production and processing” and metal objects in Iran, this research focuses on investigation of macroeconomics variables impact on the strategic (main) product. Industrial goods dealing as growth and development engine in different countries considered. Besides, providing of pioneer steel production and dealing in Iran's economy other economic sectors developed.

In this study, Youhanson long term convergence and Grangery cause tests utilized to relationship type and Iran's macroeconomics variables (Gross National Product, Global Oil price, Population and domestic steel production) impact investigation to analyze steel export and import in the period of: 1975-2011.

Findings show the statistical positive and significant relationship between “crude steel export” with “Gross National Product, Global Oil price, Population and domestic steel production”. Also the statistical positive and significant relationship between “crude steel import” with “Gross National Product, Global Oil price, Population and domestic steel production” was approved. The Grangery cause test results point out the bilateral significant relationship between “crude steel export and import” and “Iran's macroeconomics variables”.

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