实际有效汇率失调与尼日利亚橡胶出口的关系

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
Ridwan Mukaila
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引用次数: 3

摘要

目的:本研究探讨了尼日利亚实际有效汇率失调(REERM)与橡胶出口之间的关系。研究了均衡实际汇率和一些经济基本因素对橡胶出口的影响。方法:采用约翰森协整、向量误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验等数据分析方法。研究结果表明:橡胶出口与REERM之间存在长期的关系。REERM对橡胶出口有负向影响,ERER对橡胶出口有正向影响。REERM的过去值可以用来预测当前的橡胶出口量,ERER和橡胶出口量的过去值可以用来预测彼此的现值。贸易开放对橡胶出口有正向影响,贸易条件对橡胶出口有负向影响。含义- REERM恶化了尼日利亚橡胶出口的表现,而ERER改善了其表现。因此,可以通过贸易开放、改善贸易条件、监测汇率等措施来增加橡胶出口,降低REERM,保持稳定的均衡汇率制度。独创性-本研究侧重于汇率偏离均衡、ERER和经济基本面对橡胶出口的影响,这是以前没有研究过的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Nexus between real effective exchange rate misalignment and rubber export in Nigeria
Purpose - This study examines the nexus between the real effective exchange rate misalignment (REERM) and rubber exports in Nigeria. The effects of equilibrium real exchange rate (ERER) and some economic fundamentals on rubber exports are also investigated. Methods - Johansen cointegration, vector error correction model and Granger causality test are employed as methods of data analysis. Findings - The results show that a long-run relationship exists between REERM and rubber export. REERM influenced rubber export negatively while ERER had a positive effect on rubber export. The past values of REERM can be used to predict the present volume of rubber export, and the past values of ERER and rubber export can be used to forecast the present values of each other. Trade openness positively influences rubber export while the term of trade has a negative effect on rubber export. Implication - REERM worsens the performance of rubber export in Nigeria while ERER improves its performance. Thus, rubber export can be enhanced through measures such as trade openness, improved term of trade and monitoring of exchange rate to reduce the REERM and maintain a stabilized equilibrium exchange rate system. Originality - This study focuses on the effect of deviation of the exchange rate from equilibrium, ERER and economic fundamentals on rubber export which has not been previously investigated.
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来源期刊
自引率
20.00%
发文量
21
审稿时长
12 weeks
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