Alternative futures in tourism

There is an often quoted common scenario for tourism, predicated upon increased disposable income and leisure time with low travel and accommodation costs. This article disputes the possibility of low costs in the long term and, more importantly, disputes many of the sociological and psychological bases of the common scenario and its ‘lemming hypothesis’. Leisure activities and tourism is likely to shift away from compensating for gaps in the quality of day-to-day life towards a more complementary role: strengthening personal relationships, pursuing existing relationships, deepening ethnic identities, etc.