宽框架倾向效应的实证研究

J. Brettschneider, Giovanni Burro, V. Henderson
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引用次数: 3

摘要

我们在包含1991年至1996年美国家庭交易记录的大型折扣经纪数据集中估计活跃交易者的处置效应。我们采用广泛的视角,关注投资组合而不是个股。我们发现配置效应与投资组合中盈利股票的比例成反比,当这一比例达到50%时,配置效应几乎消失。这是由损益的实现取决于账户收益的百分比所驱动的。实现亏损的可能性随着账户收益百分比的增加而增加。实现收益的概率与银行账户中收益的百分比之间的关系呈u形。我们还估计了处置效应的变化,当投资者在一个交易日实现多只股票。我们发现,当投资者卖出一只股票时,他们更有可能在同一天买入另一只股票。特别是,卖出亏损会增加投资者卖出盈利的倾向,反之亦然。这一关键发现为观察到的配置效应对投资组合构成的依赖性提供了解释。我们也为我们的发现提出了几个心理学解释。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Wide Framing Disposition Effect: An Empirical Study
Abstract We estimate the disposition effect for active traders in a large discount brokerage dataset containing US households trading records between 1991 and 1996. We apply a wide framing perspective, focusing on portfolios rather than individual stocks. We find that the disposition effect varies inversely with the proportion of stocks trading at a gain in the portfolio, nearly vanishing when this proportion reaches 50%. This is driven by how the realisation of gains and losses depends on the percentage of gains in the account. The probability to realise a loss increases with the percentage of gains in the account. The relation between the probability of realising a gain and the percentage of gains in the bank account follows a U-shape. We also estimate the change in the disposition effect when an investor realises more than one stock on a trading day. We find when investors sell a stock, they are much more likely to also realise another stock on the same day. In particular, selling a loss increases an investor’s propensity to sell a gain and vice versa. This key finding provides an explanation for the observed dependency of the disposition effect on the portfolio composition. We also propose several psychological explanations for our findings.
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