{"title":"人人都随大流?:民意调查及过往选举结果对选民偏好的影响","authors":"Magdalena Obermaier, Thomas Koch, C. Baden","doi":"10.1027/1864-1105/a000160","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Opinion polls are a well-established part of political news coverage, especially during election campaigns. At the same time, there has been controversial debate over the possible influences of such polls on voters’ electoral choices. The most prominent influence discussed is the bandwagon effect: It states that voters tend to support the expected winner of an upcoming election, and use polls to determine who the likely winner will be. This study investigated the mechanisms underlying the effect. In addition, we inquired into the role of past electoral performances of a candidate and analyzed how these (as well as polls) are used as heuristic cues for the assessment of a candidate’s personal characteristics. Using an experimental design, we found that both polls and past election results influence participants’ expectations regarding which candidate will succeed. Moreover, higher competence was attributed to a candidate, if recipients believe that the majority of voters favor that candidate. Through this attribution of competence, both information about prior elections and current polls shaped voters’ electoral preferences.","PeriodicalId":46730,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Media Psychology-Theories Methods and Applications","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"7","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Everybody Follows the Crowd?: Effects of Opinion Polls and Past Election Results on Electoral Preferences\",\"authors\":\"Magdalena Obermaier, Thomas Koch, C. Baden\",\"doi\":\"10.1027/1864-1105/a000160\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Opinion polls are a well-established part of political news coverage, especially during election campaigns. At the same time, there has been controversial debate over the possible influences of such polls on voters’ electoral choices. The most prominent influence discussed is the bandwagon effect: It states that voters tend to support the expected winner of an upcoming election, and use polls to determine who the likely winner will be. This study investigated the mechanisms underlying the effect. In addition, we inquired into the role of past electoral performances of a candidate and analyzed how these (as well as polls) are used as heuristic cues for the assessment of a candidate’s personal characteristics. Using an experimental design, we found that both polls and past election results influence participants’ expectations regarding which candidate will succeed. Moreover, higher competence was attributed to a candidate, if recipients believe that the majority of voters favor that candidate. Through this attribution of competence, both information about prior elections and current polls shaped voters’ electoral preferences.\",\"PeriodicalId\":46730,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Media Psychology-Theories Methods and Applications\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-01-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"7\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Media Psychology-Theories Methods and Applications\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1027/1864-1105/a000160\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"COMMUNICATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Media Psychology-Theories Methods and Applications","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1027/1864-1105/a000160","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"COMMUNICATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
Everybody Follows the Crowd?: Effects of Opinion Polls and Past Election Results on Electoral Preferences
Opinion polls are a well-established part of political news coverage, especially during election campaigns. At the same time, there has been controversial debate over the possible influences of such polls on voters’ electoral choices. The most prominent influence discussed is the bandwagon effect: It states that voters tend to support the expected winner of an upcoming election, and use polls to determine who the likely winner will be. This study investigated the mechanisms underlying the effect. In addition, we inquired into the role of past electoral performances of a candidate and analyzed how these (as well as polls) are used as heuristic cues for the assessment of a candidate’s personal characteristics. Using an experimental design, we found that both polls and past election results influence participants’ expectations regarding which candidate will succeed. Moreover, higher competence was attributed to a candidate, if recipients believe that the majority of voters favor that candidate. Through this attribution of competence, both information about prior elections and current polls shaped voters’ electoral preferences.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Media Psychology (JMP) is committed to publishing original, high-quality papers which cover the broad range of media psychological research. This peer-reviewed journal focuses on how human beings select, use, and experience various media as well as how media (use) can affect their cognitions, emotions, and behaviors. Submissions must substantially advance the current state-of the art on a theoretical and/or an empirical level. To name just a few typical fields and domains of inquiry, the Journal of Media Psychology considers manuscripts dealing with research on entertainment, computer-mediated communication (including social media), human-computer interaction, e-learning, computer and video games, virtual environments, or advertising. The journal is also open to research from neighboring disciplines as far as this work ties in with psychological concepts of the uses and effects of the media. Submissions of comparative work, e.g., crossmedia, cross-gender, or cross-cultural, are encouraged. Moreover, submissions including alternative analysis procedures such as the Bayesian approach are welcome. Starting in 2015, the pre-registration of research plans will also be possible. To ensure short turn-around cycles for manuscript review and fast publication, the Journal of Media Psychology relies heavily upon electronic communication and information exchange, starting from electronic submission and continuing throughout the entire review and production process.