江苏省电力行业碳排放:历史演变与未来预测

IF 4 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Energy & Environment Pub Date : 2022-05-29 DOI:10.1177/0958305X221087506

Chenjun Zhang, Teli Ma, Changfeng Shi, Yung‐ho Chiu

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引用次数: 5

摘要

本文以江苏省为例，对2002 - 2017年电力行业碳排放进行测度，构建扩展STIRPAT模型量化其驱动因素，并利用蒙特卡罗方法模拟2018 - 2030年多情景下的碳排放演变。研究结果表明:(1)人口规模、城镇化水平、人均GDP、工业增加值和用电强度对电力行业碳排放的增加有促进作用。(2)贸易开放程度和其他省份的传输水平对碳排放的减少起作用。(3)在基线情景和绿色发展情景下，电力行业碳排放均呈现持续增长趋势，但在绿色发展情景下，碳排放增速明显放缓。

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Carbon emission from the electric power industry in Jiangsu province, China: Historical evolution and future prediction

This paper takes Jiangsu as an example to measure the carbon emissions from the electric power industry from 2002 to 2017, builds an extended STIRPAT model to quantify its driving factors, and uses the Monte Carlo method to simulate the evolution of carbon emissions in multiple scenarios from 2018 to 2030. The results show that: (1)Population scale, urbanization level, GDP per capita, industrial added value, and electricity consumption intensity promote the increase of carbon emissions in the electric power industry. (2)Trade openness and the transmission level of other provinces play a role in reducing carbon emissions. (3)Under the baseline scenario and the green development scenario, the carbon emissions of the electric power industry have shown a continuous growth trend, but the growth rate of carbon emissions has slowed down significantly under the green development scenario.

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来源期刊

Energy & Environment ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

7.10%

发文量

157

期刊介绍： Energy & Environment is an interdisciplinary journal inviting energy policy analysts, natural scientists and engineers, as well as lawyers and economists to contribute to mutual understanding and learning, believing that better communication between experts will enhance the quality of policy, advance social well-being and help to reduce conflict. The journal encourages dialogue between the social sciences as energy demand and supply are observed and analysed with reference to politics of policy-making and implementation. The rapidly evolving social and environmental impacts of energy supply, transport, production and use at all levels require contribution from many disciplines if policy is to be effective. In particular E & E invite contributions from the study of policy delivery, ultimately more important than policy formation. The geopolitics of energy are also important, as are the impacts of environmental regulations and advancing technologies on national and local politics, and even global energy politics. Energy & Environment is a forum for constructive, professional information sharing, as well as debate across disciplines and professions, including the financial sector. Mathematical articles are outside the scope of Energy & Environment. The broader policy implications of submitted research should be addressed and environmental implications, not just emission quantities, be discussed with reference to scientific assumptions. This applies especially to technical papers based on arguments suggested by other disciplines, funding bodies or directly by policy-makers.