2011-2017年伊朗纳贾法巴德交通事故死亡率

IF 0.2 Q4 EMERGENCY MEDICINE
Moslem Taheri Soodejani, Marzieh Mahmudimanesh, L. Abedi, S. Tabatabaei, Azimeh Ghaderi
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引用次数: 2

摘要

背景:道路交通事故是年轻人致残和死亡的最重要原因之一。许多在道路交通事故中受伤的人在到达医院后死亡。目的:本研究旨在评估道路交通事故死亡率的趋势,并利用时间序列模型预测未来几年的死亡率。方法:本研究调查了2011 - 2017年伊朗纳贾法巴德市道路交通事故及其受害者的趋势。对得到的数据进行ARIMA时间序列模型的拟合,并根据均方误差最小的原则选择最佳模型。此外,通过残差ACF和PACF图以及Ljung-Box卡方统计量来检验模型的拟合优度。结果:采用趋势分析和ARIMA模型进行分析,结果显示2011-2017年交通事故死亡人数呈下降趋势。随后,对部分模型进行拟合,选择均方误差值最小的ARIMA(0,1,1)。通过拟合最佳模型,预测了2018 - 2022年的交通事故死亡率趋势。预测结果表明,未来交通事故死亡率呈下降趋势。结论:道路交通伤害死亡率呈下降趋势,表明未来几年道路交通伤害死亡率呈下降趋势。因此,近年来应用的干预措施可能被认为是有用的。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Traffic Accident Mortality in Najafabad, Iran during 2011-2017
Background: Road traffic accident is one of the most important causes of disability and death in the young population. A significant number of people injured in road traffic accidents die after they arrive at the hospital. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the trend of mortality in road traffic accidents and forecast it for the coming years using time series modeling. Methods: This study investigated the trend of road traffic accidents and their victims in Najafabad, Iran, between 2011 and 2017. The ARIMA time series model was fitted on the obtained data and the best model was selected based on the least mean square error. Moreover, the model’s goodness of fit was investigated by residuals ACF and PACF plots as well as Ljung-Box chi-square statistics. Results: The trend analysis and ARIMA models were investigated, and the results showed a descending trend of fatalities due to traffic accident during 2011-2017. Afterwards, some models were fitted and ARIMA was selected (0, 1, 1), because it had the lowest mean square error value. By fitting the best model, the trend of traffic accident mortality was forecasted for five years (2018 to 2022). Finally, the forecasted values showed that future traffic accident mortalities had a decreasing trend. Conclusion: The trend of mortality due to road traffic injuries declined, indicating a decreasing trend in deaths for the upcoming years. Therefore, the interventions that have been applied in recent years may be considered as useful.
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Trauma monthly
Trauma monthly EMERGENCY MEDICINE-
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