为什么偏度很重要?问峰度。

Roberto Stein
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我研究了偏度度量和股票预期收益之间的关系。过去的研究迫使数据拟合线性模型,发现这些变量之间只有负相关关系。使用一种新颖的方法,内在地估计两个变量之间关系的断点,我发现了三个不同的区域。预期收益在偏度中下降,但仅在偏度绝对值相对较低的区域。对于高度左偏或右偏的分布,这种关系实际上是正的。此外,我发现峰度在这种关系中起着重要的中介作用。将第四个矩的度量添加到所有测试的模型中,将所有偏度系数变为负的,并且大多数在统计上不显著。依靠概率论,我提供了一个理论框架,支持所有实证研究结果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Why Does Skewness Matter? Ask Kurtosis.
I investigate the relationship between measures of skewness and expected stock returns. Forcing the data to fit a linear model, past research finds only a negative relationship between these variables. Using a novel methodology that endogenously estimates breakpoints in the relationship between two variables, I find three distinct zone. Expected returns are decreasing in skewness, but only for a region of relatively low absolute values of skewness. For distributions which are highly left- or right-skewed, the relationship is actually positive. Moreover, I find that kurtosis plays a major role in mediating this relationship. Adding measures of the fourth moment to all models tested turns all skewness coefficients negative, and most statistically insignificant. Relying on probability theory, I provide a theoretical framework that supports all empirical findings.
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