{"title":"为什么偏度很重要?问峰度。","authors":"Roberto Stein","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3440159","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"I investigate the relationship between measures of skewness and expected stock returns. Forcing the data to fit a linear model, past research finds only a negative relationship between these variables. Using a novel methodology that endogenously estimates breakpoints in the relationship between two variables, I find three distinct zone. Expected returns are decreasing in skewness, but only for a region of relatively low absolute values of skewness. For distributions which are highly left- or right-skewed, the relationship is actually positive. Moreover, I find that kurtosis plays a major role in mediating this relationship. Adding measures of the fourth moment to all models tested turns all skewness coefficients negative, and most statistically insignificant. Relying on probability theory, I provide a theoretical framework that supports all empirical findings.","PeriodicalId":11465,"journal":{"name":"Econometrics: Econometric & Statistical Methods - General eJournal","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-08-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Why Does Skewness Matter? Ask Kurtosis.\",\"authors\":\"Roberto Stein\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3440159\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"I investigate the relationship between measures of skewness and expected stock returns. Forcing the data to fit a linear model, past research finds only a negative relationship between these variables. Using a novel methodology that endogenously estimates breakpoints in the relationship between two variables, I find three distinct zone. Expected returns are decreasing in skewness, but only for a region of relatively low absolute values of skewness. For distributions which are highly left- or right-skewed, the relationship is actually positive. Moreover, I find that kurtosis plays a major role in mediating this relationship. Adding measures of the fourth moment to all models tested turns all skewness coefficients negative, and most statistically insignificant. Relying on probability theory, I provide a theoretical framework that supports all empirical findings.\",\"PeriodicalId\":11465,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Econometrics: Econometric & Statistical Methods - General eJournal\",\"volume\":\"10 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-08-20\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Econometrics: Econometric & Statistical Methods - General eJournal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3440159\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Econometrics: Econometric & Statistical Methods - General eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3440159","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
I investigate the relationship between measures of skewness and expected stock returns. Forcing the data to fit a linear model, past research finds only a negative relationship between these variables. Using a novel methodology that endogenously estimates breakpoints in the relationship between two variables, I find three distinct zone. Expected returns are decreasing in skewness, but only for a region of relatively low absolute values of skewness. For distributions which are highly left- or right-skewed, the relationship is actually positive. Moreover, I find that kurtosis plays a major role in mediating this relationship. Adding measures of the fourth moment to all models tested turns all skewness coefficients negative, and most statistically insignificant. Relying on probability theory, I provide a theoretical framework that supports all empirical findings.