A review of the ecological consequences and management implications of climate change for the Everglades

Abstract Southern Florida's Everglades are at the front line of potential negative effects on aquatic ecosystems from climate change and associated sea-level rise. A diversity of aquatic habitats supports a rich assemblage of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife, including 36 vertebrates and 26 plant species federally listed as endangered, threatened, or candidate species. Anticipated climate-change trends for southern Florida include increased weather uncertainty with more droughts, higher temperatures, and an increased number of more intense storms. Hydrologic regimes, temperature, and CO2 have been strongly correlated with plant community structure, coral and fish abundance and diversity, and higher trophic-level responses. Higher levels of variability in extreme climatic events, such as droughts, have the potential to destabilize aquatic communities. Sea-level rise is expected to be 0.8 to 2 m over the next century, a serious problem in a landscape that rises only 5 cm/km from Florida Bay inland. Wading birds and other wildlife species dependent on fresh water are likely to decline because of salt-water overwash and inundation. In addition to causing habitat loss, saltwater inundation of the peat substrate of Everglades freshwater wetlands may increase C emissions from sequestered C released as peat is destroyed and freshwater plant communities die. Identification of those species and habitats most at risk and ways to increase habitat and landscape resilience to large-scale environmental change will be critical for maintaining a diverse and productive Everglades.