Muhammet Yilmaz, Fatih Tosunoğlu
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摘要

数据缺失和缺口始终是有效规划和管理水资源的障碍。完整可靠的水文时间序列是水资源优化设计的必要条件。对土耳其54个观测站缺少的流量数据进行了补全研究。这个过程是借助各种统计估计方法完成的。采用线性回归(LR)、人工神经网络(ANN)、自适应神经模糊推理系统(ANFIS)、支持向量机(SVM)、多元自适应样条回归(MARS)和k近邻(KNN)方法进行估计。基于四个性能标准对填充方法的性能进行评价;即训练和测试期间的均方根误差(RMSE)、决定系数(R2)、平均绝对误差(MAE)和克林-古普塔效率(KGE)。选取周边台站可靠的长时间流量数据作为输入,填补输出台站缺少的流量数据。结果表明,单一方法不能确定为研究区域的最佳拟合方法。试验阶段,R2为0.54 ~ 0.99,KGE为0.62 ~ 0.98。该研究表明,SVM和MARS方法尤其适合于估算土耳其河流中缺失的流量数据。这些发现将为水文建模和水资源规划与管理提供可靠的流量数据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Türkiye'nin nehirlerinde eksik akım verilerinin tamamlanması için çeşitli veri odaklı tekniklerin performans değerlendirmesi
Missing data with gaps is always an obstacle to effective planning and management of water resources. Complete and reliable hydrological time series are necessary for the optimal design of water resources. A study was conducted to fill in missing streamflow data of 54 observation stations across Turkey. This process was done with the aid of various statistical estimation methods. Estimations were performed by using Linear regression (LR), Artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), Support vector machine (SVM), Multivariate Adaptive regression splines (MARS), and K-nearest neighbor (KNN) methods. Performances of infilling methods were evaluated based on four performance criteria; namely, root mean squared error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) during training and test periods. Reliable and long streamflow data from surrounding stations were selected as input to fill in missing streamflow data for an output station. The results revealed that a single method cannot be specified as the best-fit method for the study area. During the test phase, the R2 ranged from 0.54 to 0.99, and the KGE range was between 0.62 and 0.98. This study showed that especially SVM and MARS methods are suitable for estimating missing streamflow data in Turkey’s rivers. These findings will provide reliable streamflow data that can be used in hydrological modeling and water resources planning and management.
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