重新审视油价变动对通胀的不对称影响:来自马来西亚的证据

IF 4 4区环境科学与生态学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Energy & Environment Pub Date : 2022-04-07 DOI:10.1177/0958305X221077336

S. Sek

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引用次数: 4

摘要

现有的研究石油价格对国内物价通胀影响的文献只关注总体水平上的消费者价格。以生产者和生产水平为重点，并以分类数据为基础的研究非常缺乏。此外，以往的研究也主要采用线性回归的方法来研究油价的影响。本研究旨在通过关注马来西亚的部门消费者(CPI)，工业(IPI)和生产者(PPI)价格来探讨上述问题。采用了马尔可夫切换(MS)回归技术。这些模型的创新之处在于纳入了石油价格变化的不对称效应。研究结果揭示了不同行业国内价格通胀对油价变化的不同反应。油价对国内价格通胀的影响不对称，对工业和生产者价格的影响大于对消费者价格的影响。在与石油/能源资源有较高联系的部门，这种影响更大。这些行业都是石油密集型行业，对油价变化非常敏感。这些部门包括CPI运输部门、IPI制造业、电气部门以及PPI燃料、化工和制造业部门。然而，石油并不是导致国内通货膨胀的主要因素。通货膨胀的主要决定因素是实际汇率、总供给和总需求。此外，政策决定对价格稳定也有影响。CPI类交通运输类、PPI类动植物油类、PPI类燃油类价格上涨趋势较大，应密切监控。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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A new look at asymmetric effect of oil price changes on inflation: Evidence from Malaysia

The existing literature that examined the effect of oil price on domestic price inflation only focused on consumer price at an aggregate level. The studies that focused on producer and production levels, and based on disaggregated data are very lack. Besides, previous studies also mainly applied the linear regression approach in studying the effect of oil price. This study seeks to explore the mentioned issues by focusing on sectoral consumer (CPI), industrial (IPI), and producer (PPI) prices of Malaysia. The Markov-switching (MS) regression technique is applied. The models are innovated by incorporating the asymmetric effects of oil price changes. The results reveal different reactions of sectoral domestic price inflation to oil price changes. The oil price has asymmetric effects on domestic price inflation with higher impacts on industrial and producer prices than the consumer price. The effect is larger in sectors that have higher linkages with oil/ energy resources. These sectors are oil-intensive and are sensitive to oil price changes. Among these sectors are the CPI transportation sector, IPI manufacturing, and electrical sectors as well as PPI fuel, chemicals, and manufacturing sectors. However, oil is not the main factor causes to domestic inflation. The main determinants of inflation are real exchange rate, aggregate supply, and demand. Besides, the policy decisions are also influential on price stability. The sectors of CPI transportation, PPI animals & vegetable oils, and PPI fuel have a high tendency to increase prices and should be well-monitored.

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来源期刊

Energy & Environment ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES-

CiteScore

7.60

自引率

7.10%

发文量

157

期刊介绍： Energy & Environment is an interdisciplinary journal inviting energy policy analysts, natural scientists and engineers, as well as lawyers and economists to contribute to mutual understanding and learning, believing that better communication between experts will enhance the quality of policy, advance social well-being and help to reduce conflict. The journal encourages dialogue between the social sciences as energy demand and supply are observed and analysed with reference to politics of policy-making and implementation. The rapidly evolving social and environmental impacts of energy supply, transport, production and use at all levels require contribution from many disciplines if policy is to be effective. In particular E & E invite contributions from the study of policy delivery, ultimately more important than policy formation. The geopolitics of energy are also important, as are the impacts of environmental regulations and advancing technologies on national and local politics, and even global energy politics. Energy & Environment is a forum for constructive, professional information sharing, as well as debate across disciplines and professions, including the financial sector. Mathematical articles are outside the scope of Energy & Environment. The broader policy implications of submitted research should be addressed and environmental implications, not just emission quantities, be discussed with reference to scientific assumptions. This applies especially to technical papers based on arguments suggested by other disciplines, funding bodies or directly by policy-makers.