民用航空运输的未来展望

D. Bushnell
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引用次数: 10

摘要

民用航空运输正在迅速变化,正在经历复兴,具有真正重大的社会和广泛的商业和工业层面的影响。这一复兴得益于大量先进的革命性技术,包括可再生/“绿色”/日益廉价的能源、电力推进、纳米材料和材料加工、印刷制造、人工智能(AI)/自主性、新兴的全球传感器网格、安全/可靠性的实现、小型化和弹性导航和通信。这一复兴的主要组成部分是向基本无排放的飞行/驱动飞机的持续转变,包括个人飞机,后者从当地街道起飞,最终取代大部分地面运输和定期商业空中交通。由于预计飞行车辆数量将大幅增加,自动驾驶车辆操作和空中交通管制将至关重要。个人飞机市场的建设预计将达到每年1万亿美元的规模。这种个人航空运输的好处包括大大降低了道路、桥梁和现有汽车基础设施的成本,大大缩短了旅行时间,由可再生能源充电的电力推进系统对气候、生态系统和污染产生了重大有利影响,自主操作为拯救生命提供了可能。小型/个人级飞机的应用包括广泛的服务、商业和政府用途,以及更长、更容易、更快的通勤可能性。考虑到预计的交通工具改进和合适的空中交通管制系统,个人飞行器可能会取代大部分国内航空服务。它们可以用于体育运动,并且应该是适合的,是自主的,供老年人和体弱者使用。从2019冠状病毒病对航空旅行的重大甚至历史性影响来看,这场航空复兴的竞争日益激烈。远程旅行,身临其境,虚拟存在作为航空旅行的替代方案已经开发了很长时间。这项技术,特别是带宽和虚拟现实,已经发展到这种替代物理旅行的技术,现在已经成为各种物理旅行的严重竞争,这在COVID - 19的影响中得到了证明。远程旅行是我们正在进入的飞速发展的远程一切虚拟时代的一个方面,包括远程工作、远程通勤、远程教育、远程医疗、远程购物、远程电子商务、远程政治/娱乐/社交以及现场打印机、远程制造。远程旅行的好处包括成本低得多,大大减少了对气候的影响,时间短得多,远离家人的时间少得多等,以及更多的参与机会和效率。对于跨音速和超音速的长途航空运输,预测包括无排放的电动汽车,充电里程增加,或通过可再生能源成本降低产生的绿色燃料。然后是生物燃料,盐生植物是一种生长在使用含盐海水的荒地上的盐植物,具有巨大的潜力。此外,通过减少阻力,可以使空气动力性能加倍,从而可以在给定电池能量密度的情况下增加可实现的范围。此外,还有先进的纳米复合材料和纳米级金属打印,具有极好的微结构,可以提供干重减轻和额外的范围增加。可再生能源目前与化石碳发电的成本持平或更低,其成本仍在继续下降。目前,可再生能源约占新发电能力的95%,目前约占全球电力的28%,预计在二三十年后,可再生能源的发电量将达到80%。可再生能源和能源存储的成本在过去三年中下降了约70%,这似乎为未来的电动或绿色燃料飞机提供了最小的排放。有两种截然不同的方法被用于改进材料,更强,更轻的重量,更耐用等。第一种是纳米管复合材料。第二种是由多年来的观察得出的,即由于各种材料加工方法产生的位错和晶界问题,金属的性能下降了20倍。改进的方法是在纳米尺度上进行打印,通过投影工程科学,生产出大大改善的微观结构和性能,提高了5倍
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Prospective Futures of Civilian Air Transportation
Civilian air transportation is changing rapidly, is undergoing a renaissance with truly major societal and wide-ranging commercial and industrial level implications. This renaissance is enabled by a plethora of advanced to revolutionary technologies including renewable / “green”/ increasingly inexpensive energy, electric propulsion, nanomaterials and materials processing, printing manufacture, artificial intelligence (AI)/autonomy, an emerging global sensor grid, safety/reliability attainment, miniaturization and resilient navigation and communications. The major component of this renaissance is an ongoing shift to essentially emissionless fly/drive aircraft including personal aircraft, the latter flown from the local street, eventually replacing much of ground transportation and scheduled commercial air traffic. Due to the projected tremendous increase in the number of flying vehicles, autonomous vehicle operation and air traffic control will be essential. The buildout of the personal aircraft markets is projected to be the order of $1T/ year. The benefits of such personal air transportation include major reduced costs for roads and bridges and current auto infrastructures, much shortened travel time, the electric propulsion recharged by renewables resulting in major favorable climate, ecosystem and pollution impacts, and autonomous operation proffers the possibility of saving lives. The applications for small/personal class aircraft include an extensive number of service, business, and governmental uses and far longer, easier, faster commute possibilities. Given projected vehicle improvements and a suitable air traffic control (ATC) system, personal air vehicles could replace much of domestic airline service. They can be used for sport, and should be suitable, being autonomous, for use by the aged and the infirm. The emerging competition for this aero renaissance was apparent in the major-to-historic COVID-19 impacts upon air travel. Tele-travel, immersive, virtual presence as an alternative to air travel has long been under development. The technology, especially bandwidth and virtual reality, has been developed to where this alternative to physical travel is now a serious competition for physical travel of all varieties as proven in the COVID 19 impacts. Tele-travel is one aspect of the rapidly developing tele-everything virtual age that we are entering, including tele-work, tele-commuting, tele-education, tele-medicine, tele-shopping, tele-commerce writ large, telepolitics/entertainment/socialization and with onsite printers, tele-manufacturing. The tele-travel benefits include far less cost, major reductions in climate impacts, far less time, minimal time away from family etc., and far more engagement opportunities, efficiency. For long haul air transport at transonic and supersonic speeds, projections include emissionless electrics with increasing ranges recharged or via green fuels produced by the cost reductions of renewable energy. Then there are biofuels, with a potential huge capacity enabled by halophytes, salt plants grown on wastelands using saline, seawater. Also enabling would be doubled aero performance via drag reduction, which could increase achievable range for given battery energy density. In addition, there are advanced nanocomposites and nanoscale metal printing with superb microstructures, which could provide dry weight reductions and additional range increases. Renewable energy is now at or below cost parity with fossil carbon generation with their costs still continuing to fall. Currently renewables are some 95% of new generation capacity and generate now some 28% of electricity worldwide, with projections for 80% generation in two to three decades. The still ongoing cost reductions for both the renewables and energy storage, which dropped some 70% over the last three years, appear to proffer minimal emissions for electric or green fueled aircraft going forward. There are two disparate approaches being pursued for improved materials, stronger, lighter weight, more durable, etc. The first of these is nanotube composites. The second is motivated by observations over the years that the performance of metals is, by factors up to the order of 20, degraded by the dislocations and grain boundary issues produced by various materials processing approaches. The improvement approach for this is printing at the nanoscale, producing much improved microstructure and properties by a factor of 5 with projections Engineered Science
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