Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) reaction to climate change in the provenance tests in the north of the Russian plain

Abstract Species with continuous distribution area will be impacted by climate change in different ways. That is related to the population’s geographical position and climate features of the population formation. Short-term response of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) was studied with taken into consideration intraspecies features of populations. Provenance tests in the Arkhangelsk (62.60 N, 39.98 E) and Vologda (62.60 N, 39.98E) regions located in the north of the Russian Plain were used. Provenances collection (23 provenances from the northern, middle, and southern taiga subzones and mixed forest zone) from areas with different climate characteristics was considered. Clinal variability and a reaction norm of vegetative and generative response to various levels of temperature change and seed transfer were studied. Average actual height and diameter values for 31-year provenances and calculated values for provenances were compared using ‘latitudinal growth coefficient’ proposed by I.V. Volosevich (1984) for the north of the Russian Plain. Provenance reproductive ability response was assessed using seed-bearing trees’ numbers in provenances of the 1st class of age. Pine growing in the north of the Russian Plain would respond to warming by productivity increasing more significantly than pine growing in the south. Response of pine from the northern and middle taiga subzones on climate warming can be expected on 1.01 m and 1.12 cm to temperature rise by 100°C for height and diameter, and 0.85 m and 0.93 cm for seeds transfer to 1 degree of northern latitude to southward. Probable reaction norm for pine reproduction potential under temperature change by 100°C of the sum of the temperatures above 10ºС and seed transfer by 1 degree of northern latitude can be expected about 6%.