Unsupervised link prediction using aggregative statistics on heterogeneous social networks

The concern of privacy has become an important issue for online social networks. In services such as Foursquare.com, whether a person likes an article is considered private and therefore not disclosed; only the aggregative statistics of articles (i.e., how many people like this article) is revealed. This paper tries to answer a question: can we predict the opinion holder in a heterogeneous social network without any labeled data? This question can be generalized to a link prediction with aggregative statistics problem. This paper devises a novel unsupervised framework to solve this problem, including two main components: (1) a three-layer factor graph model and three types of potential functions; (2) a ranked-margin learning and inference algorithm. Finally, we evaluate our method on four diverse prediction scenarios using four datasets: preference (Foursquare), repost (Twitter), response (Plurk), and citation (DBLP). We further exploit nine unsupervised models to solve this problem as baselines. Our approach not only wins out in all scenarios, but on the average achieves 9.90% AUC and 12.59% NDCG improvement over the best competitors. The resources are available at http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/~d97944007/aggregative/