气候变暖时极端降雨和极端洪水的时空放大

IF 3.1 3区 地球科学 Q2 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
M. Faghih, F. Brissette
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项工作探讨了133个北美集水区面积、降雨持续时间和未来流量增加之间的关系,范围从66.5到9886 km2。它利用高空间(0.11°)和时间(1小时)分辨率单模式初始条件大集合(SMILE)和水文模型的输出来计算持续时间为1至72小时、回归期为2至300年的极端降雨量和流量。在所有持续时间和回复期都观察到极端降水的增加。预估的增加与持续时间、频率和集水区大小密切相关,持续时间最短、回归时间最长和集水区较小的地区相对降雨量增加最大。这些增加可能相当显著,在较小的集水区,百年一遇的降雨频率会增加20倍。在未来的极端水流中也观察到类似的持续时间-频率-大小增加模式,但相对增加幅度更大。这些结果表明,未来极端降雨的增加将不成比例地影响较小的集水区,特别是对于不透水的城市集水区,这些集水区通常很小,其雨水排水基础设施是为长周期流量设计的,两者都是未来流量放大将最大化的条件。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Temporal and spatial amplification of extreme rainfall and extreme floods in a warmer climate
This work explores the relationship between catchment size, rainfall duration and future streamflow increases on 133 North American catchments with sizes ranging from 66.5 to 9886 km2. It uses the outputs from a high spatial (0.11°) and temporal (1-hour) resolution Single Model Initial condition Large Ensemble (SMILE) and a hydrological model to compute extreme rainfall and streamflow for durations ranging from 1 to 72 hours and for return periods of between 2 and 300 years. Increases in extreme precipitation are observed across all durations and return periods. The projected increases are strongly related to duration, frequency and catchment size, with the shortest durations, longest return periods and smaller catchments witnessing the largest relative rainfall increases. These increases can be quite significant, with the 100-year rainfall becoming up to 20 times more frequent over the smaller catchments. A similar duration-frequency-size pattern of increases is also observed for future extreme streamflow, but with even larger relative increases. These results imply that future increases in extreme rainfall will disproportionately impact smaller catchments, and particularly so for impervious urban catchments which are typically small, and whose stormwater drainage infrastructures are designed for long-return period flows, both being conditions for which the amplification of future flow will be maximized.
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来源期刊
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Journal of Hydrometeorology 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
5.30%
发文量
116
审稿时长
4-8 weeks
期刊介绍: The Journal of Hydrometeorology (JHM) (ISSN: 1525-755X; eISSN: 1525-7541) publishes research on modeling, observing, and forecasting processes related to fluxes and storage of water and energy, including interactions with the boundary layer and lower atmosphere, and processes related to precipitation, radiation, and other meteorological inputs.
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