陷入困境的选票,安静的街道:竞争的威权主义和抑制土耳其的反政府抗议

IF 3.7 1区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE
Anıl Kahvecioğlu, Semih Patan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

大规模抗议活动经常发生在选举专制国家。然而,土耳其的情况正好相反,尽管民众的不满与日俱增,而且反对派势力强大,拥有制度资源。我们认为,竞争性威权政体(选举专制政体的一个子集)可能会抑制大规模抗议活动,使反对派有机会通过选举击败现任者。通过对土耳其主要反对党的研究,我们确定了三种机制,这些机制显示了政治家如何从战略上应对政权的激励和约束,从而导致反对抗议的行为。首先,该政权的镇压能力使反对派不敢公开支持大规模抗议。其次,反对派学会了瞄准中间选民,这导致了政治温和和抗议厌恶。最后,预期的选举胜利加强了反对派对以选票为中心的做法的承诺。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Embattled Ballots, Quiet Streets: Competitive Authoritarianism and Dampening Anti-Government Protests in Turkey
ABSTRACT Mass protests frequently occur in electoral autocracies. However, the opposite is true in Turkey, despite mounting grievances and a strong opposition presence with institutional resources. We argue that competitive authoritarian regimes, a subset of electoral autocracies, may dampen mass protests, allowing the opposition an opportunity to defeat the incumbents through elections. Studying Turkey’s main opposition party, we identify three mechanisms that show how politicians strategically respond to the regime’s incentives and constraints leading to protest-averse behaviour. First, the regime’s repression capacity discourages the opposition from openly supporting a mass protest. Second, the opposition learns to target the median voter, which leads to political moderation and protest averseness. Finally, prospective electoral success reinforces the opposition’s commitment to a ballot-centred approach.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
21.20%
发文量
14
期刊介绍: A leading point of reference for scholars of Southern Europe, South European Society and Politics promotes both comparative and inter-disciplinary analyses, as well as offering innovative single county and sub-national studies. The journal acts as a forum for social, economic, cultural, contemporary historical and political approaches to research on the region, and is particularly keen to sponsor policy–focused studies in all these disciplines. The journal publishes research articles; South European Atlas with election reports and articles on other subjects of topical interest, and an extensive book reviews section, including both review articles and individual book reviews.
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