The Pandemic of COVID-19 in Eastern Mediterranean Region: Selected Outcome Parameters

Background: Despite the passage of eight months since the start of COVID-19 pandemic, it still represents a major public health problem at global, regional and national levels. Objective: To present comparative outcome indicators and time trends for the pandemic among countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region and to discuss possible determinants behind such trends. Methods: We used data on all newly reported cases of COVID-19 infection from the start of the pandemic in each EMR country till the 5 of August, 2020. Three sources of data were used: the World Health Organization Websites and two private website reporting cases of world countries. Numbers were directly abstracted from these sources and Excel programme functions were used to make graphic presentations. Verification of numbers were made with data reported by health authorities in these studied countries. Results: As on August 5,2020 countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region varied substantially in scale of the incidence rate per million population (from highest of 38939.1 in Qatar to lowest of 54.2 in Syria), the case fatality (closed case fatality ratio) ranged from lowest of 0.2% in Qatar to the highest of 37.0% in Yemen. Cause-specific mortality rate ranged from 1.1 to 212.5 per million population in Jordan and Iran respectively. Testing policy was the main determinant of reported cases. Despite the decline in the scale of daily cases, none of the countries has reached a stage of clear exit (zero cases). Conclusion: Most of the countries are experiencing a pattern of accelerated pandemic and are heading towards declining trend. Few are experiencing continued rise or resurgence and threats to re-emerge are impending. Reopening is a real challenge and careful scientific evidence based exit might be possible.