Agri-food trade resilience among food-deficit countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper examines the trade resilience of low-income and food-deficit countries (LIFDCs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the pandemic declaration, LIFDCs have faced unique challenges due to their heavy reliance on food imports. This paper identifies the differential trade effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on agri-food exports to LIFDCs using a dynamic treatment effects model and monthly product-level agri-food trade data. The baseline results show a sharp decrease in agri-food exports to LIFDCs in the first three months after the pandemic declaration and a gradual recovery afterward. Additional analyses at the product and country levels show that LIFDCs focused on securing cereal products from foreign sources and that imports of other agri-food products contracted considerably relative to the counterfactual. The foreign supply chains of LIFDCs were less resilient in the first quarter after the treatment than those of other low-income countries, but their recovery was also faster than in those other countries. The paper provides the empirical underpinning for concerns raised by international organizations regarding the resilience of agri-food supply chains and COVID-19 containment measures, revealing the differential impact that lockdowns had on agri-food trade resilience in the developing world.