3D seismogenic model of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake and subsequent seismic risk

On April 25th, 2015, the moment magnitude (M-w) 7. 8 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal occurred in Himalaya orogenic belt, which seems insufficient to release the accumulated energy as suggested previously. The following seismic risk assessments are mostly based on the two dimensional or pseudo-three dimensional inversions of tectonic deformation. Here we analyze the relationship between the main shock and biggest aftershock of the 2015 Gorkha earthquake sequence, and its unevenness in time and space. Combining focal mechanism solutions, crustal velocity structure, relocated aftershocks, and inversion results from InSAR, we construct a three dimensional model which changes along both the strike and dip directions of the Main Himalayan Thrust. The finite element method with nonlinear friction is used to calculate the fault behavior and block deformation in one earthquake recurrence period. Comparison between the forward calculation results and the co-seismic deformation observed from InSAR, and co-seismic slip inverted from deformation observations, and time-space evolution of historical earthquakes revealed that the three dimension model is close to the reality. The results suggest two potential seismic risk regions in the future: a big earthquake might be located in the east of the 1934 Bihar-Nepal M-w similar to 8. 1 earthquake, and a moderate to major event might take place to the southeast of the aftershock M(w)7. 3 earthquake.