主权债务之战

Colin Krainin, Kristopher W. Ramsay, Bella Wang, Joseph J Ruggiero
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引用次数: 1

摘要

目前对战争起因的思考集中在讨价还价策略、手头资源以及作为冲突驱动因素的转移能力上。这种观点忽视了获得信贷在塑造战争与和平方面可能发挥的重要作用。我们将探讨金融市场如何影响国家间战争的可能性。我们表明,进入资本市场增加了和平的可能性,但预防性战争仍然是可能的。市场对危机结果的影响是通过债务的价格来实现的,而价格是由市场条件决定的,比如无风险利率和国家特定条件,比如违约的可能性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
War with Sovereign Debt
Current thinking on the causes of war focuses on bargaining strategies, resources on hand, and the ability to make transfers as drivers of conflict. This view ignores the important role access to credit can play in shaping war and peace. We explore how financial markets impact the potential for interstate war. We demonstrate that access to capital markets increase the possibility of peace, but preventive war remainspossible. The effects of the market on crisis outcomes is through the price of debt and that prices are determined by market conditions like the risk free interest rate and state specific conditions like the likelihood of default.
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