印度的经常账户和资本账户动态:改革后时期的实证分析

IF 1.1 Q4 BUSINESS
Tanveer Ahmad Khan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文分析了自由化后的印度经常账户和资本账户之间的动态关系。经常账户赤字与资本账户盈余同时出现,表明这两个账户之间可能存在因果关系。围绕资本账户自由化(KAL)的理论辩论旨在为政策制定的实证结果提供支持。对支持和反对KAL论点的分析解放了我们对实证结果的解释。在KAL的框架下,本文开始估计经常项目和资本项目之间的关系。对1996年至2018年期间的印度季度数据进行了一组计量经济学测试。计量经济分析表明,资本账户对企业绩效有负向影响。短期资本和债务流动对CA也有负向影响,而外国直接投资(FDI)对CA有正向影响。我们发现债务流动是导致CA失衡的重要因素。这种动态对任何有关大韩航空的决定都至关重要。从分析中可以看出,印度需要鼓励外国直接投资,同时保持对短期资本的严格控制,这是高度破坏性的,并谨慎地走向全面的大韩航空。JEL代码:C32, F21, F32
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Current and Capital Account Dynamics in India: An Empirical Analysis of the Post-Reform Period
This article analyses the dynamics between current account (CA) and capital account in post-liberalisation India. Contemporaneous occurrence of CA deficit along with capital account surplus suggests the possible causal relationship between the two accounts. The theoretical debate around capital account liberalisation (KAL) is developed with the intention to lend support to empirical results for policy formulation. The analysis of arguments for and against KAL liberates us in interpreting the empirical results. Within the framework of KAL, this article proceeds to estimate the relationship between current and capital account. A set of econometric tests are performed on an Indian quarterly data over the period from 1996 to 2018. Econometric analysis reveals that capital account affects CA negatively. Short-run capital and debt flow also affect CA negatively, while foreign direct investment (FDI) affects it positively. We find debt flow to be an important factor, contributing to CA imbalance. Such dynamics is critical for any decision about KAL. From the analysis, it is observed that India needs to encourage FDI, while maintaining strict control over short-term capital, which is highly disruptive, and proceed cautiously towards full KAL. JEL Codes: C32, F21, F32
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.50
自引率
23.10%
发文量
37
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