经济增长、金融深化与信息通信技术之间的关系:来自黎巴嫩的经验证据

Salah Abosedra, Ali Fakih
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引用次数: 9

摘要

利用1993年至2009年的数据,通过估计向量误差修正模型(VECM),对金融深化和信息通信技术(ICT)在黎巴嫩经济中的影响进行了实证调查。在短期内,我们的实证结果表明,金融深化和信息通信技术似乎都不会影响经济增长。然而,从经济增长到金融深化存在单向因果关系,这意味着黎巴嫩的情况支持“需求跟随”假设,即金融发展是增长的副产品。从长期来看,经济增长与金融深化和信息通信技术水平密切相关。这表明,没有证据表明金融深化或信通技术发展对黎巴嫩的周期性波动有短期抑制作用,但对黎巴嫩的长期增长有强烈影响。我们的研究结果的一个主要含义是,金融市场或信息通信技术的发展将缓慢地降低黎巴嫩的增长波动性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The relationships between economic growth, financial deepening, and information and communication technology: Empirical evidence from Lebanon
The impact of financial deepening and the use of information and communication technology (ICT) in Lebanon"s economy is empirically investigated by estimating a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using data from 1993 to 2009. In the short-run, our empirical results show that neither financial deepening nor ICT seems to impact economic growth. However, there is a unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial deepening implying that the `demand-following" hypothesis, in which financial development is a by-product of growth, is supported in the case of Lebanon. In the long-run, economic growth is found to be strongly related to financial deepening and ICT levels. This suggests the absence of evidence for a dampening effect from either financial deepening or ICT developments on cyclical fluctuations in the shortrun, but strong effects in the long-run growth in Lebanon. A major implication of our results is that growth volatility reductions in Lebanon expected from developments of financial markets, or ICT will be slow to materialize.
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