基于博弈论模型的土耳其天然气枢纽发展分析

IF 3.1 4区工程技术 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy Pub Date : 2022-12-31 DOI:10.1080/15567249.2022.2052209

Yunus Emre İci̇k, M. Atak

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引用次数: 1

摘要

土耳其的天然气枢纽发展最近一直受到关注，因为其长期天然气供应合同将于2021年至2026年到期。本研究旨在通过代表土耳其天然气市场不同成熟度的四种非合作博弈模型，探讨天然气枢纽发展过程中的终端用户价格和托运人行为。这些模型包含混合互补问题，使用GAMS软件利用土耳其天然气市场的数据进行求解。我们的研究结果表明，尽管由于更多供应选择的可用性和竞争的增强，枢纽成熟度的提高会降低终端用户的价格，但由于进口商的战略性保留，从长期合同转向现货交易可能会导致终端用户价格的上涨。我们的模型是开创性的，因为它们是第一个描述土耳其天然气市场中托运人行为的模型。

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An analysis on Turkey’s natural gas hub development through a game-theoretic model application

ABSTRACT Turkey’s natural gas hub development has been under the spotlight recently as its long-term gas supply contracts expire between 2021 and 2026. This study is an effort to investigate end-user prices and shippers’ behaviors in the natural gas hub development process through four noncooperative game models representing different maturity levels of the Turkish gas market. These models, comprising mixed complementarity problems, are solved by GAMS software using the Turkish gas market’s data. Our findings suggest that although increasing hub maturity yields decreasing end-user prices owing to the availability of more supply options and enhanced competition, a shift from long-term contracts to spot trading may result in an increase in the end-user prices due to strategic withholding by importers. Our models are pioneering as they are the first to depict the Turkish gas market with regard to shippers’ behaviors.

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来源期刊

Energy Sources Part B-Economics Planning and Policy ENERGY & FUELS-

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

12.80%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

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